Annan’s rapid diplomacy confounds sceptics
Can former United Nations secretary general Kofi Annan, Africa’s most decorated diplomat, deliver a resolution to the Kenya crisis? After a few days of sittings, all indications are that the mediation talks to end the post-election conflict have started on a positive note. Initially, hopes were dashed when it emerged that the protagonists had chosen a number of hardliners to the parley — including ODM strongman William Ruto and Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Martha Karua from the PNU side. Pundits predicted a protracted affair characterised by intransigence and hostile manoeuvring by the representatives of President Mwai Kibaki and his rival, opposition leader Raila Odinga.
But as the mediation process kicked off in earnest on Wednesday, the vibes coming out of the talks being held at the Nairobi Serena Hotel were beginning to confound sceptics. The most significant sign of progress was the fact that Annan had managed to get the protagonists to agree to concluding the mediation process within seven days. It was a major breakthrough because, with the country still engulfed in widespread violence, a protracted mediation process running into months was a prospect the international community, which is keen to restore stability in Kenya — did not want to contemplate.
When the talks convened on Wednesday, the expectation was that the parties would spend an inordinate time “talking about talks” and arguing about mundane preliminary issues.
For instance, pessimists had predicted that the talks would not go beyond a dispute over the credentials of some of the representatives, especially of Nairobi lawyer and secretary general of ODM-Kenya Mutula Kilonzo.
A day earlier, Raila Odinga had, during the launch of the talks, argued that his party only recognised the PNU as the opposite party in the dispute, and was therefore not prepared to engage other parties in discussions.
Thus, expectations on Wednesday were that the ODM team would make heavy weather about the participation of Mr Kilonzo in the talks as a representative of President Kibaki.
Also expected to generate tension at the meeting was the issue of whether the talks were a “national dialogue” or a political and “international mediation.” In the wake of the conflict, the standard argument of people on Kibaki’s side has been that what is at issue is a mere discussion about the security situation in the country.
This attitude was captured best by the remarks of government spokesman Alfred Mutua when he at one point insisted that AU chairman John Kufuor, President of Ghana, who visited the country in the second week of January to start the mediation process, had been in Nairobi to “have a cup of tea” with President Kibaki.
Last week, concern grew on the ODM side when it emerged that the agenda that Annan had put out consistently referred to the talks as a “national dialogue.” “We are now in a position to submit to you, for your consideration and agreement, a set of documents to establish the process of national dialogue,” he had said in a letter dated January 27 to both Raila and Kibaki.
The manner in which Annan set out the agenda and what he saw as the priorities of the mediation process was also promising to raise heat. According to the draft agenda, the top priority on the list was an end to the violence followed by action to address the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the country.
The issue of the disputed presidential elections and a political settlement came way below on the priority list in Annan’s suggested agenda. There were loud murmurs on the ODM side, with the hardliners arguing that Annan had swallowed Kibaki’s bait.
Nevertheless, our sources told us that when the parties met for the first time, the mood was not to waste too much time on preliminaries.
ODM raised Kilonzo’s participation, but did not dwell on it. A disagreement also arose about whether or not it made sense to retain the so-called liaison officers in the meeting, but after hours of debate, Annan not only allowed the parties to redesignate them as “secretaries,” but also to nominate one more representative to make it possible for each side to have a maximum of four representatives.
As we went to press, the ODM side had already nominated Ugenya MP James Orengo as their fourth representative in the talks.
The only preliminary issue that took up Annan’s time during the Wednesday meeting was the participation of Gichira Kibara in the talks, with the ODM team arguing that the man was a civil servant and, therefore, did not qualify to be at the meeting.
The question of whether what was at issue was a national dialogue or a mediation was discussed and dispensed with without much controversy.
The PNU side also took issue with the ODM’s demand for a re-run of the presidential election, pointing out that the results of elections could only be dealt with by the High Court.
In the draft agenda, Annan had included a requirement that the ban on live coverage of events by the government be lifted.
The PNU side demanded that the item be removed from the agenda, as it had become the subject of a court case.
What raised heat was the choice of the chief mediator who will continue to chair the dialogue process when Annan will have left.
Annan and fellow panellist Graca Machel proposed the name of leading South African politician and businessman Cyril Ramaphosa.
According to our sources, the PNU side resisted, arguing that Ramaphosa had too many intimate links with people in Kenya to play honest broker in the conflict.
The PNU also reportedly argued that given Ramaphosa’s history and role within the African National Congress, he was likely to be inclined towards the opposition.
But the panellists held firm, with Machel reminding them that Ramaphosa had impeccable mediation credentials that had seen him taking assignments internationally, including Northern Ireland.
It is noteworthy that the following day, Tanzania’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Bernard Membe, announced on the sidelines of the African Union summit in Addis Ababa that Ramaphosa had been named as chief mediator.
Suddenly, progress was looming on the horizon; this breakthrough, observers said, revealed the hand of a very skilful and experienced negotiator — one Kofi Annan.
He came to Kenya to find a highly polarised environment, where the main players, President Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, were hostages of hardliners within their camps.
Kibaki had made it clear to him that he was the duly elected president and his number one priority was peace. The opposite side wanted a re-run of the presidential election or a re-tallying of votes.
Worse, even as he engaged in diplomacy, the security situation in the country was deteriorating rapidly.
Annan consulted widely, and met political leaders, women’s groups, religious leaders, youth groups, community-based organisations, representatives of the business community and legal and human-rights groups.
“We also sought the views of the diplomatic community, namely the African Union, the European Union and the United States,” he said in a letter to President Kibaki and Raila.
Annan also visited the Rift Valley to witness the plight of thousands of families who have been displaced by the post-election violence.
What is clear is that Annan recognised very early on that his mission would be impossible if he did not win the confidence of both sides — especially President Mwai Kibaki.
From the way he framed the agenda of the meeting, it was clear that he realised that he had to move tactically to get the latter’s commitment to the mediation process. He managed.
The situation right now is that if President Kibaki backs out of the mediation process, he may well have to face the UN Security Council. Friday’s “booster” visit to the talks in Nairobi by current UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, during which he stated that the situation in Kenya was “unacceptable,” certainly seemed to suggest that.
Kofi Annan of Ghana, the seventh Secretary General of the United Nations, is the first to be elected from the ranks of UN staff. His first five-year term began on January 1, 1997 and, following his subsequent re-appointment by the UN member states, he began a second five-year term on January 1, 2002.
Born in Kumasi, Ghana, on April 8, 1938, Annan studied at the University of Science and Technology in Kumasi and completed his undergraduate work in economics at Macalester College in the United States in 1961. From 1961 to 1962, he undertook graduate studies in economics in Geneva. As a 1971-1972 Sloan Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Annan received a Master of Science degree in management.
Annan joined the UN in 1962, working for the World Health Organization in Geneva, where he later also served with the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. At UN Headquarters in New York, Annan held senior positions in a diverse range of areas. Annan is married to Nane of Sweden, a lawyer and painter. The Annans have three children.
The East African
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