“It Will Not Be Machetes and Arrows Any More, But Firearms”
Political analyst Kwamchetsi Makhokha has warned that failure of talks to address Kenya’s political crisis could prove explosive. The East African country is trying to resolve a disputed presidential election that has already cost more than 1,000 lives—and displaced up to 600,000 people. “It will not be machetes and arrows any more, but firearms. Intelligence reports show that people are seriously arming youths in readiness for war. The next phase will be total breakdown of law and order,” he told IPS. “We have seen this happen...Protagonists refuse to negotiate or sign a peace deal to solve a contentious political issue, or ignore gaping social problems...and then it blows up in your face,” added Makhokha, who is based in the capital, Nairobi. His comments come in the wake of talks being put on hold earlier this week.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga has accused President Mwai Kibai of rigging the Dec. 27 poll to gain a second term in office, while international observers have also expressed reservations about the vote. The election sparked clashes, frequently along ethnic lines: Kibaki is a member of the Kikuyu, Kenya’s largest tribe, while Odinga is a Luo. The Kikuyu are a dominant force in political and economic life, often to the ire of other ethnic groups.
Violence has now declined; but Makhokha’s fears of renewed clashes are shared by many. Over the weekend, about 200 youths were arrested on a ranch in western Kenya—an Odinga stronghold—where they were reportedly undergoing military training with a view to protecting Kibaki supporters.
Former United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan has been mediating in talks between the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) for over a month. However, on Tuesday Annan suspended talks, saying negotiators were simply “turning around in circles”.
The two parties had been discussing a power-sharing government that would include the creation of a prime minister’s post which Odinga looked set to occupy. Talks apparently foundered on various issues, including the extent of powers to be granted to a new head of government, and whether the president should have the authority to fire the prime minister.
The ODM is pressing for a powerful prime minister, against the wishes of the PNU. At present, the head of state in Kenya exercises considerable authority.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who visited Nairobi last week to throw her weight behind a joint government, reaffirmed the need for a negotiated settlement to the crisis, Tuesday.
“I want to emphasize that the future of our relationship with both sides and their legitimacy hinges on their cooperation to achieve this political solution,” she noted, in a statement.
“We will draw our own conclusions about who is responsible for lack of progress and take necessary steps.”
Certain reports have the PNU obstructing talks. The party has come under fire from political analyst Jacqueline Oduor: “The entire country has been on hold, waiting for peace and a way forward, but now there are people denying us this,” she told IPS.
The European Union has also pledged action against those undermining the talks, or fomenting violence.
Accordingly, certain Kenyans could find themselves confronting sanctions such as travel bans, a hindrance for those who journey abroad and have their children educated in Western countries.
For his part, Kenya’s minister of foreign affairs, Moses Wetangula, is quoted as saying that foreign powers were free to “support the dialogue process, but not to impose solutions.”
The opposition had planned to hold demonstrations Thursday to protest against the stalemate in negotiations. But Odinga later announced that the mass action was being postponed, following a request from Annan. Previous marches have resulted in violence.
The former U.N. head held meetings with both Odinga and Kibaki Wednesday in a bid to jumpstart the negotiations. Tanzanian president and African Union head Jakaya Kikwete was also in Nairobi to help press for a resolution of the Kenyan crisis.
The past few weeks have not marked the first instance in which Kibaki and Odinga have found themselves negotiating division of power.
Another power-sharing deal between the two men, reached ahead of the 2002 elections, was to have ensured that Odinga would become prime minister in return for his support of the National Rainbow Coalition, which brought Kibaki to power five years ago.
However, the agreement collapsed.
IPS News
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