Comment & analysis
The Kenyan post-election crisis - A digital essay (Part One)
Onyango Oloo
2008-01-15, Issue 336
http://pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/45418
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From the look of things, it would appear that we are still a long way from resolving the serious post-election crisis that is gripping and almost crippling Kenya.
Even after Raila Odinga and ODM considerably softened their preconditions for internationally mediated talks with their opposite numbers by dropping their demand that Kibaki must resign; calling off a series of rallies and mass actions across the country and lowering the decibel of their political rhetoric, Mwai Kibaki and his fellow usurpers seems set on a suicidal path to tighten their hold on the stolen public offices.
On Tuesday, January 8, 2008 the besieged Pretender President in the State House compounded the putschist, undemocratic initial injury he had inflicted on the Kenyan nation by unilaterally and illegally appointing his cronies and side-kicks to ministerial positions literally hours before African Union Chairperson John Kuffuor of Ghana landed at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to mediate in scheduled talks between ODM and PNU.
Not only did Kibaki violate Kenyan law by appointing these individuals before they had been sworn in formally as members of parliament, the Othaya MP was desperate to confront the visiting Kuffuor with a fait accompli by grabbing the most powerful and strategic cabinet positions for himself and his faction.
In doing so, Kibaki also laid bare a lot of what Kenyans had been suspecting for months:
Kalonzo Musyoka, the ODM-K leader and also ran presidential candidate had always been a fifth columnist amidst opposition ranks causing much rancour while still in the original ODM and bolting off to form ODM-K as a stratagem of wangling for himself the coveted VP slot. Now every boast of Kalonzo’s about being a “peace maker” and ‘Mr. Clean Hands” rings hollow; words and phrases added to the growing hill of human turd, the self-created merde composed of his swaggering and sauntering election campaign boasts of being the “most formidable opponent” of Kibaki and the “people’s servant”.
How could Kibaki’s so called “most formidable opponent” agree to be a mere junior stand in for his alleged nemesis?
How could an alleged “peace maker” and so called “servant of the people” jump hastily into bed with someone whose criminal actions had led to so much blood shed, ethnic acrimony, economic devastation and political uncertainty?
What is also clearly evident is that Kibaki’s move to appoint Kalonzo Musyoka as his deputy could be an advance gambit anticipating a re-run of the presidential contest where Kibaki and his schemers reckon that Kalonzo may single-handedly delivered the Akamba bloc vote.
Judging by his less than stellar showing at the just concluded parliamentary and presidential elections, it is by no means a sure bet that Kalonzo will actually live up to this lofty expectations.
Many of us in the progressive and democratic camp here in Kenya have been chastened with the emerging agenda of the United States and such multi-lateral global bodies like the World Bank.
A leaked memo authored by the Guyanese born Kenya Country director of the World Bank Colin Bruce basically setting the ground for an acceptance of the Kibaki coup d'etat is a very sobering reminder that when it comes to crunch time, institutions such as the World Bank will gravitate towards the status quo.
Some of my reliable sources here in Nairobi inform me that the United States publicly unstated position militates against a re-run of the election, leaning more towards a negotiated power-sharing formula between Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki- as if the national crisis that has seen tens of thousands of democracy seeking Kenyan protesters lash out in anger in response to the stolen presidential vote outcome.
It is also not very clear what the mainstream African agenda is regarding the current crisis in Kenya.
Conterminous with the arrival and presence of John Kufour was the puzzling tour of ex-Presidents Kaunda of Zambia, Mkapa of Tanzania, Chissano of Mozambique and Masire of Botswana.
Were they in Kenya to bolster or undermine the shuttle diplomacy of the Ghanaian head of state?
What are more disturbing are the personal, ideological and strategic intentions of President Yoweri Museveni from the neighbouring nation-state of Uganda.
Credible reports indicate that Ugandan troops-some of them dressed in Kenyan police uniform, some of them in civvies- have been implicated in the extra-judicial state ordered executions of unarmed civilians in Kisumu, including many infants and minors, with some shot at close range while cowering in their own homes.
An observer in Nairobi has privately suggested to this writer that the Kibaki posse of political criminals did approach the Ugandan government expressing their insecurities about dealing with any negative fallout from within the Kenyan military establishment in the aftermath of the elections.
Museveni, according to this source, is supposed to have reassured the Kenyan head of state and his shadowy kitchen cabinet that Uganda was ready to do ANYTHING- including dispatching troops to Kenya to thwart any efforts at overturning the Kibaki civilian coup.
The observer in Nairobi is of the opinion that the main thing driving Museveni’s mother hen attitude towards Kenya has less to do with guaranteeing Kenyan political stability as with the Ugandan president’s own megalomaniacal ambitions to be the capo dei capi of East and Central Africa over the next few years. As many readers of these lines know, there is a push to consolidate the process of implementing the East African Community as an economic, legal, social and POLITICAL entity. Part of the provisions of that process is the creation of an East African Community President.
My source avers that Museveni sees himself as the natural born leader who will fit that slot. M7 (as the Ugandan president is often referred to, especially in his native land) thinks that Kenya’s Raila Odinga stands in Museveni’s way because of the ODM flag-bearer’s own charisma, Pan African appeal and political pedigree (it never hurts to be scion/offspring of one of the Third World’s most celebrated nationalist heroes, Jaramogi Ajuma Oginga Odinga).
The observer in Nairobi is convinced that Museveni’s covert and overt (he is the only leader to have so far "recognized" the illegitimate hostage in the State House) support for Kibaki is rooted in a cynical, mid term quid pro quo strategy of neutralizing any aspirants to the ultimate East African crown jewel.
I ran this hypothesis by another friend of mine, this one a highly placed individual embedded at the core of Kenya’s National Security Intelligence Service.
My NSIS contact was very skeptical about the Museveni Factor as delineated by my observer pal.
He says that going by his own contacts within the Ugandan armed forces and intelligence agencies, there does not seem to be ANY credence that could lift the Museveni Hypothesis above the level of wild rumour and baseless speculation. He also doubts the reports, lately echoed by Raila Odinga himself about the active participation of Ugandan troops in the state-engineered massacres of civilians in Kisumu.
I will leave my readers to use their own discretion to interrogate, verify and/or corroborate the veracity or otherwise of these serious allegations regarding the role played by President Museveni in the current Kenyan crisis.
Nevertheless, my spooky intelligence pal shared with me something else:
He told me that there is a high level of uncertainty and even mild dissent within the armed forces, the regular police and other elements of the Kenyan state security apparatus.
He claims that the wildly refuted SMS rumours which speculated that Kenya’s army chief and the police commissioner had resigned around New Year’s Day were NOT totally baseless because there had been some kind of heightened pressures on the duo within those ranks that the military and the police should not be seen to be condoning Kibaki’s electoral grand larceny.
The NSIS Deep Throat also told me that overall morale within the armed forces has been lowered considerably and that there are more and more middle-ranking officers who are quitting the Kenyan military to pursue soldier of fortune opportunities in places like Iraq or take up private civilian security consulting gigs within the country- a trend that he evaluates as not being in the best interests of the Kibaki junta.
My shadowy source also asserted that the MAJORITY of the members of the REGULAR police are OPENLY sympathetic to ODM and that could be one reason why the Michukis and Murages opted for members of the dreaded GSU and the Administration Police together with the elements from the National Youth Service as the storm troopers to protect the illegal installation of Mwai Kibaki. Even here he says that many of those young people dressed up in those fierce looking anti-riot gear are actually NOT GSU but AP and NYS personnel because the commander of the Administration Police is allegedly closer to the kitchen cabinet cabal than the other police heads.
Again what I am purveying here is a perspective from one individual. Whether what he is saying is true or not is subject to further investigation and verification.
There are so many things which have been happening in Nairobi which are yet to make it to the public domain. For instance we are told that immediately after the polls, former President Moi (with or without some of his kids) boarded a plane bound for Germany. Upon arrival, the authorities in that European state loaded promptly on another Nairobi bound flight, barring his presence in Germany.
* This is the first part of the essay, the second of which will appear in the next issue of Pambazuka News
*Onyango Oloo, a Kenyan political activist and ex political prisoner.
*Please send comments to editor@pambazuka.org or comment online at www.pambazuka.org
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