Elections & governance

Nigeria: Pambazuka News Election Briefing

Joshua Ogada (2007-02-02)

http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/elections/39610

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As Nigeria prepares to go the polls in April of 2007, the continent and the world will be closely watching developments in the continent’s most populous nation. This will be the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in the country’s history. In the run-up to the elections, focus has been on the recently-released population census figures, the perceived incompetence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as well as the sheer number of candidates and parties competing.

The 2006 census puts the population at around 140 million. Although most analysts consider this a conservative, if not inaccurate figure, the main area of contention is the breakdown by region. According to the census, the North is more populous than the South. Southerners dispute this finding based on population densities and geographical realities. Rather, they perceive these findings as a means to bolster resource allocation disparities, gerrymandering, and even a precursor to vote-rigging in favour of the North.

The INEC recently extended the voter registration deadline by 14 days to allow for more Nigerians to register for the polls. The electoral body has come in for heavy criticism over its incompetence. There is concern about potential vote rigging, so the manner in which the INEC discharges its duties will determine how well the election results are received by the country and the world at large.

In such a populous and political volatile country, the sheer number of parties and candidates vying for election is by no means surprising. Of the thirteen-odd main parties vying for elections, four are fielding candidates in real contention for the presidency.

People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is the ruling party. Its candidate is the present governor of Katsina state, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who is Obasanjo’s anointed successor. He has leftist leanings and is the only state governor untainted by corruption allegations.

The All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) is the main opposition party. Its candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari is contesting elections again, having lost to Obasanjo in 2003.

The Action Congress (AC) candidate is Vice-president Atiku Abubakar. He was a founding member of the PDP but was suspended in allegations of corruption. He switched parties while in office, which has raised a potential constitutional crisis. Because the AC and the ANPP have an election pact, he will have to challenge Buhari to be able to vie for the presidency. His campaign is based on his call for a ‘power shift’ from the South to the North, whence he hails.

Former military ruler and power-broker Ibrahim Babangida has yet to find a political party to support his bid. He left the PDP after Obasanjo allegedly refused to back his bid for nomination in favor of Yar’Adua. He also enjoys wide public support in the North.

The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) candidate is Chukwuemeka Ojukwu. He is the former leader of the Biafra secession uprising and a cult-figure of his Igbo people. His influence is more or less confined to South-Eastern Nigeria.

The spectre of violence and upheaval still hangs heavily over the country. There has been some unrest following the removal of high ranking officials and state governors by legislative process. The prominence of former generals in politics and in the elections is also a cause for concern given the country’s past experience of military rule.

Further reading and discussions:

INEC http://www.inecnigeria.org/
The Vanguard http://www.vanguardngr.com
Nigerian Village Square http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/