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Features
Where to, Zimbabwe?
Patrick Bond
2008-04-03, Issue 359
http://pambazuka.org/en/category/features/47087
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As the world waits to see what will happen in Zimbabwe, Patrick Bond argues that lessons should be taught and retaught about the dangers of elite transition between a voracious, corrupt, violent and divisive set of rulers, and an incoming crew who might not withstand the blandishments of local power-sharing and global economic seduction.
Zimbabwe's March 29 election surprised many, because although it seemed President Robert Mugabe had the machinery in place to ensure a victory even by stealth, as has happened before, the groundswell of opposition was overwhelming. By late on April 3, we don't know how many votes he won, either in reality or in the cooked books of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), but certainly fewer than 50%.
What is known, at this writing, is that a bare plurality of the 210 seats in the House of Assembly were won by Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change: 99. This was two ahead of Mugabe's Zanu-PF, with Arthur Mutambara's MDC faction getting 10 and the independent Jonathan Moyo retaining his seat. (Three more seats will be fought for in by-elections due to the deaths of MDC candidates.)
But these are official statistics, and who knows what the actual votes were, once the multiple systems of rigging are exposed, if ever they are?
As for the presidential race – for which at this time no figures have been released by the ZEC - Tsvangirai says that based on polling place reportbacks, he received 1,171,079 votes, or about 49%, with Mugabe getting 44% and Makoni the balance. (Mutambara told his supporters to vote for Makoni.)
Senate and municipal election results are also not being released as we write. In any case, the official parliamentary results are so distorted that on Thursday morning the state-owned Herald newspaper claimed, “Zanu-PF had won 45,94 percent of the votes, MDC-Tsvangirai 42,88 percent, the MDC [Mutambaraba] 8,39 percent and the minor parties and independent candidates 2,79 percent.” The Herald even claimed Zanu-PF outpolled Tsvangirai's MDC in Matabeleland South.
Though Zanu-PF has definitely lost control of parliament, such numbers justify Mugabe potentially contesting a run-off, which would be held no more than 21 days after March 29. Tsvangirai and former finance Minister Simba Makoni had a pre-election pact to unite in such an event, and it is hard to imagine that if the pact holds, Tsvangirai would not beat Mugabe outright, one on one.
Makoni, who ran solo for president with no machine behind him, never gained the open public support of key military factions and of dissident Zanu-PF politicians that his main handler, Ibbo Mandaza, had predicted.
Makoni's arrogance in entering the race – probably drawing away roughly the same votes from each main party – was again witnessed this morning. His advisor, former Mugabe spokersperson Godfrey Chanetsa, now insists that in a new government in alliance with Tsvangirai, Makoni would not “play second fiddle. He came to lead.”
As reporter Fiona Forde put it, “frantic behind-the-scenes negotiations were laying the groundwork for a government of national unity that would include not only the opposition MDC but also Zanu-PF with Makoni taking on a senior role with extended executive powers.”
Here's Chanetsa's strange rationale: "Eight percent is an illusion. Many people were afraid to vote for Simba, afraid of letting Zanu in the back door and losing their chance of getting rid of Robert. But if they got rid of Robert, do you still think they would see Morgan as the right man for the job?"
Meanwhile, an ominous dance began between Tsvangirai and the forces of imperialism. According to a Reuters report today, the MDC would gain access to US$2 billion per year in 'aid and development' – which normally is top-heavy with foreign debt and chock-full of conditions. Amongst these, most likely, are dramatic cuts to the civil services, so that the Zimbabwe central bank stops printing so much money, fuelling inflation. But the downside is the potential deepening of the country's economic crisis in the short term, as effective demand falls while more luxury goods become available thanks to foreign exchange inflows.
The key players are the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Union and the United Nations. No doubt Bush's White House is also involved in negotiations, which, if Tsvangirai persuades Mugabe to depart, may even reach fruition next week at the IMF/Bank spring meetings in Washington.
Given that Tsvangirai has chosen advisors from the International Republican Institute and Cato Institute, such a process was anticipated. It simply means that the left-leaning civil society forces that backed Tsvangirai have a huge regroupment challenge. If after an April 21 victory, many progressive Zimbabwean organisations lose cadres into an expanded state, this may recall the liquidation of South Africa's Mass Democratic Movement into the African National Congress government.
At least in Kenya, reports from Tuesday's street battles between hundreds of protesters and police show that civil society will not necessarily accept a 'supersized state' as a gimmick to seduce contesting parties into a government of national unity. “No more than 24!” was the activists' demand for a slim state so that more social spending can be spent on ordinary people, not the bloated ministers' Mercedes.
In the same critical spirit, Kenya's National Civil society Congress and Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice offered wisdom and solidarity in a statement today. Amongst their concerns, were “That SADC should review their statement that concluded that elections were free and fair while closing their ears to the significance of the undemocratic practices of the Zanu-PF regime.”
Between Kenya's tragic election last December and Zimbabwe's uplifting experience last Saturday, lessons should be taught and retaught about the dangers of elite transition between a voracious, corrupt, violent and divisive set of rulers, and an incoming crew who might not withstand the blandishments of local power-sharing and global economic seduction.
*Professor Patrick Bond is the Director of the Durban based Centre for Civil Society.
**Please send comments to editor@pambazuka.org or comment online at www.pambazuka.org
Readers' Comments
Let your voice be heard. Comment on this article.
The political danger in falling prey to Gordon Brown's imperialistic deisgns through the MDC is far, far, worse for Zimbabwe and Africa, than tactically foregoing electoral democracy as a means of holding out against Britain.
The very last thing Zimbabwe needs at this time, and always, is to fall under a British sponsored MDC government. Independence is a far greater priority for Africa than "democracy"; infact without independence, democracy is definitively impossible.
And that is the glaring weakness in the MDC option - it is a British puppet party which has been receiving millions in British support to oust Mugabe, so that the Whites can reclaim the land. It is a Trojan Horse. An MDC government under British patronage (as indeed it would be) would throw Zimbabwe back to the days of colonialism and make a mockery of the Chimurenga (I,II and III) and the millions of lives that have been lost. This is why Mugabe is absolutely justified in saying Tsangirai will never be allowed to rule Zimbabwe.
Michael Baingana
Zimbabwe remains a sensitive issue, that has been allowed to fester to almost unredeemable proportions. But it is the people of Zimbabwe who must stand up and be counted. Yes, they need support from all of us in Africa and the world, but they must know that they have the power to decide how they want their country to move forward. It is clear that the outgoing ruling elite of Zanu-PF is not willing to let go of power. The irony of the situation in Zimbabwe is that you hear of only one man, who runs the show there! Who are the side-kicks?, who are the pretenders to the throne? does that mean there is no other potential leader to take over, as in all cases it is Mugabe being put forward? does he ever consult or get any second opinion from party members? Is there space for such opinion or advice? my opinion is that Mugabe has become a liability for Zanu-PF, hence people like Simba Makoni & others decided to jump ship, though very late!
But it is disappointing that in Africa, leaders are doing what is not in the interest of their people! They don't seem to take advice kindly if they get it at all! Why is AU and SADC silent when such clear electoral transgressions as happened in Kenya and Zimbabwe take place? Is this the closing of ranks among the elite? President Mbeki said "the situation in Zimbabwe is manageable", really so? How do you prepare for a run-off when the results are unknown, have not been released? Isn't a run-off takes place in case of a tie? Who is fooling who here?
Africa stand up, clean up your act!
Alfred Mafuleka (in personal capacity)
Dear readers,
I am surprised to have heard of a news broadcast this morning transmitting from my national broadcasting corporation (TBC) that President Robert Mugabe has asked the Zimbabwe Electoroal Commission (ZEC) to recount the Presidential election votes, but why?. This means that, the delays of not giving out the results clearly shows that the opposition has won the election and that, the ZANU-PF leader is in the process of manipulating the results. President Mugabe must accept the results whatsoever, why plunging the nation into a political turmoil?. It really shows that Mugabe has senced a situation of failure on his own side. Why asking for the vote recounting when the election commission has not yet announced the results? If the results would have been out, then a disatisfied contestant is given time to complain of the results. But for him, this is in vice versa.
EMMANUEL ONYANGO OF PROFITZONE (T) LIMITED