Kenyans are preparing to go to the polls at the end of the year and, as in past years, there is much horse-trading and jockeying among the key players. President Kibaki came to power on a massive wave of change that swept aside the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and former president Moi's strangle-hold on power. The National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) that brought Kibaki to power was a tenuous but resolute grouping of seasoned political players who had fallen out of favor and been sidelined by the former regime.

It was not long before the inevitable cracks began to show in the coalition, and in the space of one year, the alliance had fallen apart. Key players in the ruling coalition like political stalwart Raila Odinga, (of the newly –formed Orange Democratic Movement) felt that the president had reneged on pre-election promises in terms of allocation of key posts. Furthermore, Kibaki pledged to serve only one term in office, but it became evident very early on that this was not to be the case. Subsequently, further divisions have occurred to the point where the current field of political parties bears little resemblance to those that went by the same name four years ago.

What remains the same are the names and faces. The hallmark of Kenyan politics is the ubiquity of the same handful of individuals who have been in the limelight for the last two decades. In the running for the top seat are scions of prominent political dynasties like Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi, as well as others who have served in previous regimes such as former Moi-era vice-president George Saitoti and Kalonzo Musyoka. Others like Musikari Kombo, Mukhisa Kituyi and William Ruto are rising contenders.

Kenyan politics remains largely ethnicity-based and politicians have always relied on voting blocks from their own and allied ethnic groups. This has largely obscured developmental issues that should take center-stage. Growth of the economy has remained modest at around 5% as has been development in major sectors of the economy such as agriculture and tourism. Corruption and crime continue to have a major impact on investment and national well-being.

It is likely that poverty will continue to have a major influence on the outcome of the elections. In the past, elections were decided based on who was able to buy the electorate with food hand-outs and promises of service delivery that are in reality the right of every citizen. With a little over nine months to go, the only thing that remains certain is that there will be more shape-shifting among the parties and players, empty promises to the electorate, and excitement in a population that is nevertheless proud to exercise their democratic right.

Further Reading:

http://www.eastandard.net
http://www.nationmedia.com
http://www.kenyanewsnetwork.com/