The newly formed Congress of the People (COPE) is making a controversial entrance into South Africa’s political landscape. Most would have thought that the African National Congress’s (ANC) 2007 Polokwane national conference, which culminated in the succession battle reaching its final crescendo with the election of Jacob Zuma as president of the party, would be the bitter end for President Mbeki’s administration. But this was not to be.

The mandarins of Zuma’s court had a wily plan to remove Mbeki, a plan initiated with the appointment of the ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe as a member of the cabinet. Assisted by Judge Nicholson’s, Zuma’s Camelot became a reality when the National Executive Council (NEC) of the ANC took the decision to recall Mbeki from office, and appointed Motlanthe as president until the 2009 national elections. Those who felt that this marked the end of the tumultuous road to Polokwane and the subsequent fractures in the party were sharply reminded that the stakes were too high to concede defeat.

The resignation by a series of ministers, premiers and policymakers that followed suit reflected the fact that the ‘Battle for the soul of the ANC’ could no longer be contained as an internal affair, becoming a public contestation of ignominious tirades and intolerance played out in both the streets and media.

The breakaway faction led by former defence minister, Mosiou Lekota and subsequently, Mbhazima Shilowa, the previous premier of the Gauteng province, pushed forward with their opposition, an opposition premised on the ideals that South Africa’s hard-fought democratic dividends were being compromised by the bigoted populism of the new ANC leadership and its allied partners. As much as upholding the principles of our young democracy became the mantra for the Shikota faction, it was also apparent that the intention was to demonstrate that the dissatisfaction and fissures in the ANC ran deeper than was being projected.

With branch structures like the Western Cape in disarray, and defections and apathy setting in among party cadres from the bottom-up, South Africa’s body politic has reached an interesting crossroads. Whereas previously the ANC’s electoral hegemony remained insulated, this time it is assumed that such insulation will be harder to maintain, especially given that COPE will be contesting the same arena as the ANC. But does COPE have the ability to make significant inroads into the ANC’s electoral space?

By contrast there are predictions that COPE will take about 20% of the votes away from the ANC. Yet the critical question is: who are these voters? At present it must be understood that COPE appeals to a broad-section of voters who are as diverse in their interests as they are in their backgrounds. What holds them together is their overarching class base, their objection to Mbeki’s resignation and the need to distinguish themselves from the grassroots populism that has captured the ANC, a populism which has evolved into banal attacks underlined by an arrogant tone.

The class dynamic amongst African voters is going to be an interesting factor in this year’s national elections. And this is where COPE and the ANC will probably fight their fiercest battles. What it also entails is that the ANC’s historical elite roots have broken ranks with the party and are seeking to demonstrate their resolve by going for an electoral victory on their own.

But the class factor could also extend to other racial groups who feel that COPE is perhaps the viable opposition they have been searching for. With political commentators maintaining that viable opposition can only emerge from within the ANC, it may be that some sections of the electorate will see COPE as filling that space and taking up the call.

The real test for COPE, however, is to expand itself into the working class and economically marginalised communities of South Africa. So far there is has been little said about how COPE will do this and what strategies are in place to appeal to those sections of the population worst affected by the impact of the global financial crisis on South Africa’s economy. Though ‘poverty reduction’ has become a catchphrase for political parties when canvassing for votes, this is not enough. How COPE will protect the interests of the underclass and the policies the party will implement is critical if it is to make any significant inroads into the ANC’s working-class base. For the moment the ANC can still rely on garnering support among this section of the population, particularly as its allied partners rally the voters around the call ‘Only the ANC can’.

Perhaps a more fundamental question still is how will new voters respond to this electoral landscape. With the ANC challenging COPE’s right to use the historical symbols and logos associated with the formation of the Freedom Charter, we should be asking whether young voters will be moved by the rhetoric of the liberation struggle, or whether they will instead be more concerned with how their material interests are best represented. The greatest challenge to this disaffected group is unemployment, and the party that best addresses this challenge will likely achieve much.

As much as COPE may have injected fresh impetus in South Africa’s multi-party electoral landscape, its leadership still has much to do in convincing South African voters that their mandate is different from their previous public positions and, more importantly, that they are genuinely concerned about the plight of the disadvantaged. Borne out of what was a reaction to the Mbeki debacle and the populist trajectory of the ANC, the leadership of COPE needs to transform their image and demonstrate whether they can become a viable opposition party that asks awkward questions and shines light in dark places. This type of democratic competition and pluralism is healthy for our young democracy and reflects a step towards consolidation, and could well dent the ANC’s two-thirds majority in parliament. But I fear that this could be meaningless as the current battle is really about power and position, a reality which runs the risk of undermining our democratic institutions and compromising the effective policies that we are still waiting for to stimulate people centred development.

While Obama-mania has set the precedent that change is possible – and it is comforting to note that the US’s first voter-registration process yielded a successful turnout with more than 1.6 million new voters registering – it remains to be seen what effect this will have on next year’s election in South Africa and how COPE will cope.

* Sanusha Naidu is an independent political analyst based with Fahamu in Cape Town.
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