The cohesion of the coalition of 10 rebel commanders - termed 'Ouattara's forces' by the international media - may yet turn out to be fragile, says this article from the South African Institute of International Affairs. 'The former rebels will want to be rewarded for ousting Laurent Gbagbo, firstly with posts in the new army, and secondly with guarantees of impunity. And they will be reluctant to start any disarmament, a pre-requisite to any meaningful security reform.'