I read an op-ed written by eminent economist and special adviser to the United Nations secretary general, Professor Jeffrey David Sachs on the prospects of the Nigerian economy with mixed feelings (New York Times, 30 May 2011). I cannot ever attempt to join issues with this international statesman. I will rather wish to align myself with emeritus Professor Paul Kurtz of the State University of New York at Buffalo who said that ‘ideas must compete on the table of free inquiry’. At least for the benefit of those who desire an engagement with Africa’s most populous and potentially most prosperous, based on facts alone.

The coinage of the word BRINCS is most commendable. That suggests that Nigeria may likely join Brazil, India, China and South Africa as part of the fast growing emerging economies. While that is a clear possibility, the economic trajectory of my home country at the moment and the willingness (or not) of her political leadership only render such a suggestion to a mere wishful thinking. Jeffrey Sachs is famous as an unrepentant optimist with a palpable passion for Africa and so his positive suggestion cannot be said to be surprising or unexpected. However, what we hear from Abuja daily does not justify the learned Professor’s optimism. Rather it suggests an exaggeration for public relations intent.

Let me put in perspective why I respectfully disagree with Jeffrey Sachs’ ‘five solid reasons for optimism’.

Firstly, the reference to ‘change’ cannot be associated with the transition from military dictatorship to democracy in 1999. What happened was a change in uniform without change in values. On ground many Nigerians do not see this as progress per se. Our electoral democracy has failed to deliver development-point blank. It does not connect with the ordinary people. Largely what we have is a government of the few by the few and for the few – an oligarchy that has produced parasitic elite who service their greed from public resources while the majority of citizens are submerged in poverty and peasantry.

Secondly the praises for the conduct of the last elections are not completely out of place. No doubt one can say without equivocation that the presidential election was at least a true reflection of the popular will of the Nigerian people. However it is not completely right to sermonise it as ‘freest and fairest’. In the subsequent elections that followed, there were isolated cases of rigging, ballot box stuffing, double voting, logistic delays and violence. The post election violence in Northern Nigeria remains a big sore on our collective conscience. Let the point be made therefore that we can do better. That cannot be said to be our best.

Thirdly, Professor Sachs referred to an anticipated impact of India and China in reshaping the Nigerian economy. While these two countries are showing enormous interest in the natural resource deposits in Nigeria, one cannot say that there is a reciprocal engagement from the Nigerian side. They enter from our porous borders, find their way to our communities and cart away whatever they can find from crude oil to precious metals. The rise in commodity prices is not enough to drive development. It must be accompanied by sound macro-economic policies and fiscal discipline. Did the learned professor ask how much was spent 2011 elections for instance?

The so-called commodity boom will come and go. It has come many times and what Nigeria has to show for it are a few faceless accounts in Swiss Banks. Abuja has no systematic plan to engage either India or China and that is the sad truth. The figures we use come from the propaganda machinery in Delhi and Beijing. We seem to be joining the ‘looking east’ frenzy without asking about what is in it for us.

Fourthly, while Nigeria is said to be enjoying a ‘robust annual growth of 7 percent’ – a diagnostic look will reveal that this is just a dry figure of jobless growth with no pro-poor element. The postulation of growth has not yet impacted on the majority of Nigerians who still remain poor. I fault the claim of Professor Sachs that Nigeria will soon join era of convergence of technology. Adequate power supply is still a wish that is farfetched in my country. Our infrastructure is still inadequate and decaying, scientific temper is very low in the population and the policy arena is still cloudy. How can such a country connect with the global technology diffusion machine?

Finally Professor Sachs must be told that Nigeria is one country that will not achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We lack the disciplined culture of generation of reliable and consistent baseline data. This is the biggest enemy of sound planning and scaled solutions. Policy inconsistency means that little gains are washed away by political reversals. Many Nigerians do not believe that the gains of the debt relief were spent in a ‘robust and accountable’ manner. That rarely happens and I stand to be corrected. Rather than give her a pat on the back, Abuja must be told that our country is still a global poster child of the paradox of plenty and the natural resource curse.

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* Uche Igwe writes from the African Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University (SAIS), Washington DC, USA.
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