Population Trends: The gap continues to widen

New report predicts massive shift in regional distribution of world
population

Berlin, 28th December 2001. Rapid population growth in developing
countries, declining population in developed countries. These are the
two trends which will determine the development of the world population
in the coming century. These are the facts which have emerged from the
current demographic report "World Population Dynamics 2002," which is
published today by The Berlin Institute for World Population and Global
Development. "The report shows quite explicitly, that there is still
great cause for concern," says Dr Hans Fleisch, Executive Director of
The Berlin Institute. "As far as population figures are concerned,
these diverging trends will remain one the dominating factors in the
coming century."

In the next 50 years, there will be a marked shift in the regional
distribution of the world's population. The report estimates that by the
year 2050, and assuming that total fertility rates in developing countries
continue to drop, the proportion of people living in developed countries
will have sunk to 12 percent, in comparison to today's figure of 17 percent.
In 1950, inhabitants of today's developed countries made up nearly 30
percent of the world's population.

This is how the world population will develop according to the report:

* Population figures will continue to drop in developed countries over
the coming decades and the average age will continue to rise. The cause
for this is the continually decreasing birth rate in most of these
countries - a trend, evident for a number of years, which is extremely
difficult to reverse. Low total fertility rates mark the population
development of many European countries, from Spain to Russia.

* In many developing countries, the population will continue to grow
rapidly. Even today, almost all existing population growth is to be
seen in the poorest countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America. In the
meantime, the trend, which has seen the number of children per family
falling, has slowed down. As a consequence, the United Nations had to
increase this year's predicted population figures for 2050 by half a
billion.

Report warns of "demographic trap"

Even differences within developing countries have never been as big as
they are today. The current trend towards lower birth rates could even
markedly slow down, the report warns. In countries such as India, the
average
number of children per woman could start to increase again. Although
the national birth average has decreased in recent years to 3.2 children
per woman, the regional picture is very different - population development
varies greatly from region to region. In the state of Kerala, where 32
million people live, the fertility rate lies at 1.8 children per woman;
the average in Uttar Pradesh - home to 170 million people - is placed at
around five children per woman.

"If we do not manage to decrease population growth in all regions, we
will experience powerful shifts in population distribution," warns Dr
Fleisch. "This represents a danger, both regionally and globally, for
security and peace. This danger should, on no account, be underestimated.

The report is published in January by Balance Verlag publishers (Germany)
and can be bought for € 14.80. To order a copy, please contact:
mailto:[email protected]

An online version is available now at:
http://www.dsw-online.de/bevoelkerungsdynamik.pdf

For further information please contact:

Ilsabe von Campenhausen (Tel: +49 172 40 72 182)
mailto:[email protected]