SOURCE: socialchang[email protected]
Also available at: www.zimciv.org/

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Issues surrounding The Formation of a Transitional government in
Zimbabwe
Excerpts from
A Survey Conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute
August 2003

Executive Summary

This survey examines the issues surrounding the formation of a
transitional government in Zimbabwe. In addition, it also examines
people's views regarding a government of national unity and the
succession debate within ZANU (PF). The survey was motivated by the
desire to find out the views of the general populace in view of the
current debate on the way forward for this country.

The survey found out that there is a desire for a change to the
status quo. Most people favour concurrent presidential and
parliamentary elections. Also outstanding is the desire for fresh
elections. For the majority of people, the solution to the problems
facing the country lies in dialogue. The two major parties are both
expected to compromise and climb down from the positions so far
maintained. Further, people expect a democratic selection process in
the ZANU (PF) succession issue, with Simba Makoni being the candidate
people feel would fare better against the opposition.

Q 1.What do you understand by " transitional government"?
The survey shows that a significant majority of the respondents do
not know what the term `transitional government means. We recorded
five responses in order of their frequency.
1 Do not know (80.0%)
2 `Care-taker' government (6.6%)
3 Government of national unity (1.2%)
4 Change of government (1.1%)
5
Q 2. Some people have suggested that the ruling party and the
opposition should form a transitional government that should be
tasked with organizing a re-run of the presidential election within
the shortest period of time possible. How supportive are you of this
idea?

A: The responses within the provinces reflects the national picture
of the fact that people support the idea of a transitional government
which should be tasked with organizing a re-run of the presidential
election. 38.1% say that this is a noble idea and are "very
supportive". 31.8% are "supportive" thus a total of 69.9% think that
the ruling party and the opposition have an obligation of forming a
transitional government. Interestingly this view also has a majority
even in provinces that traditionally have been considered ZANU (PF)
strongholds. The same applies in the rural areas, which too have been
considered ZANU (PF)'s strongest support base.

Q 3.Some people in Zimbabwe and in the international community have
suggested that ZANU PF and the opposition should form a government of
national unity while others say they should not. What is your opinion
on this issue?

A: 55.6% are of the opinion that ZANU PF and MDC should form a
government of national unity. The thinking among the respondents
appears to be that a government of national unity will bring genuine
peace, law and order as well as social and economic development. In
2000 a survey conducted by the Institute showed that 73.7%
respondents were in favour of a government of national unity (GNU).

Q 4 If you are of the opinion that the two parties should not form a
government of national unity, which of the following statements best
describes why you are opposed to the idea?

A: 40.5% say it is important to have an opposition for democracy to
function effectively and therefore the MDC should not join ZANU (PF).
36.1% do not trust ZANU (PF) and fear that the opposition could
be "swallowed". The bottom line for most respondents appears to be
that an opposition party keeps the government on its toes and is
therefore necessary.

Q 5 Would you be in favor of a constitutional amendment that will
require that parliamentary and presidential elections run
concurrently in Zimbabwe?

A: 59.2% favors a constitutional amendment that would require
parliamentary and presidential elections to be held concurrently in
Zimbabwe. Judging also from the apathy that characterized the just
ended local elections and parliamentary by-elections, it appears that
people are tired of elections. This is a view that emerges whichever
way the data is analysed. One respondent said, "If it is just one
election, at least we will get beaten up once".

Q 6 If you were in favor of this constitutional amendment, when would
you like the concurrent elections to be held?

A: Respondents are impatient to wait any longer hence 59.8% say that
it is better for the elections to be held "immediately". 21.8% say
in 2005 and a few, 6.4% can wait up to 2008 when the presidential
election will be due. Interestingly 55.7% of those residing in the
rural areas which are believed to be ZANU PF strongholds feel that
the concurrent elections should be held
immediately.

Q 7 Do you think ZANU (PF) and MDC should resume talks to find a
solution to the country's problems?

80.0% say "Yes" to the question of whether MDC and ZANU PF should
engage in talks. It is apparent therefore that for a majority of the
respondents the solution to the problems currently facing Zimbabwe
lies in dialogue. What is also interesting is that whichever variable
is used for analysis, the view still emerges prominently.

Q 8 Which one of the two parties (ZANU PF and MDC) is not genuinely
committed to dialogue?

A: 30.5% say ZANU PF is not genuinely committed to dialogue and a
majority 35.3% say both parties are accountable for the delays and
lack of progress in these talks.16.3% say MDC alone is not really
committed to dialogue. While a significant percentage point to ZANU
(PF) as the stumbling block to negotiation, it must be noted that the
MDC is not completely absolved of blame. It appears therefore that
people expect both parties to climb down from their positions even if
it is by different degrees.

Q9. ZANU (PF) has indicated that it will only go to the negotiating
table if the MDC recognizes President Mugabe's legitimacy, while the
MDC has insisted that the talks should be unconditional. What is your
opinion on this issue?

A: A majority, 39.7% of respondents are of the opinion that there
should not be any conditions for the talks to resume. If the MDC
succumbs to the conditions set by the ruling party, this will erode
its argument that it lost a flawed election .32.8% feel that both
parties should find middle ground and strike a compromise.

Q10. Some people have said there is need for intervention of external
arbitrators like President Mbeki and President Obasanjo for the talks
to succeed while others have said that there is need for arbitrators
from within the country like church leaders. What is your opinion?

A: 38.9% of the respondents are of the opinion that there is need for
external arbitrators. This response slightly outweighs the 36.8% who
say arbitrators should be from within the country. Across the age
divide, those in the 25-30 year category and those above 51 years of
age favor arbitration that comes from within the country as compared
to external intervention.

Q11. Some people have suggested that President Mugabe should step
down now and pave the way for a fresh election immediately while
others have said he should serve until his term expires in 2008 and
then retire. What is your opinion?

A: The majority view is that President Mugabe should retire now
(51.3%). What is striking however is that this is a view that is
shared across provinces, the residential area divide, gender and the
different age groups. Even the traditionally pro-ZANU (PF) provinces
such as Mashonaland East, West and Central have a majority of
respondents expressing the view that President Mugabe should retire
now and pave the way for fresh elections. The age analysis reveals
the elderly (those aged over 40), who have been pro ZANU (PF) in the
past, have shifted significantly in their views.

Q12. Some people have suggested that President Mugabe is not sincere
in his intentions of stepping down despite encouraging debate on his
succession, while others have said that he is genuinely committed to
stepping down. What is your opinion?

A: 54.8% of the respondents consider President Mugabe's comments
about retirement as insincere. Again, it is striking that in the
rural areas (hitherto the foundation of ZANU (PF) support) the
majority share this view. The same applies to all provinces including
Mashonaland East, West and central. Across the different age groups,
there is also consensus that President Mugabe is not genuine.

Q 13. Some people have said that President Mugabe should appoint his
own successor while others have said the ruling party should choose a
successor at its annual conference in December. What is your opinion?

A: The data reveal overwhelming support for the succession issue to
be settled by the party as a whole rather than by President Mugabe as
an individual. This view runs across all the variables.

Q14. If President Mugabe were to retire today and a presidential
election is held today which candidate would you vote for?

Table 49: By Province
Dabengwa 0.7
Msika 4.6
John Nkomo 5.6
Tsvangirai 35.8
Makoni 15.2
Mnangagwa 5.5
Sekeramayi 0.6
Moyo 3.1
Maya 0.5
Zvobgo 2.5
Kumbula 0.4
Siwela 0.1
Goche 0.1
Other 25.3

If free and fair presidential elections were to be held today, Morgan
Tsvangirai would emerge the winner. However, what is of great
interest, particularly to the succession debate within ZANU (PF) is
the following: Of ZANU (PF)'s potential leaders, Simba Makoni appears
to be favorite with people. This view cuts across all the variables
utilized in the analysis. Emmerson Mnangagwa follows him.

Q15. Do you think Morgan Tsvangirai should stand as the MDC candidate
in the next presidential election, whenever it is held?

A: Respondents were overwhelmingly in favour of Morgan Tsvangirai
contesting the next presidential election as the MDC candidate.
Again, the view is shared across the different analysis variables.

Q16. Finally, do you think interviews about these and other issues
are important?

A: The people appreciate the work that we do. In addition, responses
to this question indicate the need to have the public consulted more
often and extensively on issues that affect them. Asked why
interviews such as these were important, respondents said it was
because it afforded them an opportunity to contribute to public
policy.

Conclusions and recommendations

1. It would appear that the majority of people desire a change
to the status quo. 69.9% are in favor of the formation of a
transitional government that would organize a re-run of the
presidential elections. 55.6% desire the formation of a government of
national unity. In addition, 59.2% of the respondents want concurrent
presidential and parliamentary elections and of these, 59.8% want
such elections to be held immediately. 51.3% want President Mugabe to
retire now and pave the way for fresh elections.
2. The majority of people embrace the idea of a vibrant
democracy. Of the 39.8% who do not want a government of national
unity, 40,5% say the existence of an opposition party is vital for a
thriving democracy.
3. High on the list of people's expectations is successful
dialogue between the two major political parties. 80.0% of
respondents say the two parties should resume talks. 35.3% view both
parties as currently not genuine in the negotiating process. 39.7% of
the respondents feel there should be no conditions to these talks
while 32.8% specifically say both parties should strike a compromise.
With 38.9% and 36.8% opting for external and internal mediators
respectively, it would appear that for most people, the success of
the talks lies in commitment from both parties.
4. People want a democratic process in the ZANU (PF) succession
issue. 60.4% want the party to choose a successor as opposed to 14.5%
who want President Mugabe to appoint one. If presidential elections
were to be held today, Simba Makoni would be the ZANU (PF) candidate
who would fare better against the opposition.
5. Public consultation is a vital cog in any democracy and one
that the people yearn for and appreciate. 87.5% of the respondents
said interviews such as these are important.