The thousands of refugees expelled from Tanzania in 2002 are still stranded in southern Africa, afraid to return home to Rwanda and Burundi. The tripartite agreements signed with Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda to repatriate the refugees to Rwanda and Burundi, instead ended with refugees fleeing East Africa altogether, their desperation shown by the fact that hundreds walked as far as Malawi, Zimbabwe and Namibia.

More than one million children in urban slums and arid areas are still out of school. A joint donor statement released in Nairobi last Thursday says the Government has a daunting task in ensuring the children receive education. Widespread poverty has pushed the children out of school, and they spend the day doing domestic chores at the expense of education, says the report.

The Ethiopian military has committed widespread murder, rape and torture against the Anuak population in the remote southwestern region of Gambella since December 2003, Human Rights Watch said in a 64-page report released entitled "Targeting the Anuak: Human Rights Violations and Crimes against Humanity in Ethiopia's Gambella Region." Human Rights Watch said that the abuses detailed in the report could amount to crimes against humanity. Following the December 2003 massacre of some 400 Anuak civilians in a Gambella town by mobs and soldiers, the military launched a series of attacks on Anuak villages that destroyed well over 1000 homes and left several dozen villagers dead. In numerous smaller incidents, soldiers have severely beaten and sometimes killed Anuak men they encounter along roads or in sweeps of Anuak villages. These abuses have forced several thousand Anuak civilians to flee their homes for camps across the Sudanese border, while others have sought refuge with friends or family in the relative safety of Gambella's larger towns.

African countries will now be better able to guard against invasive pests that threaten their forests, sometimes from as far afield as North America, thanks to a new United Nations-backed web site launched to fight a danger that has grown seriously with the increase in trade, travel and transport. The site, created by African specialists at the initiative of the Forest Invasive Species Network for Africa (FISNA), is hosted by FAO. Features include information on new outbreaks of invasive pest species and woody species. It also provides references, publications and other links related to invasive species in Africa, those that are not native to a specific forest ecosystem, whose introduction does or is likely to harm the ecosystem.

A serious food crisis is unfolding across many East African countries; large numbers of people, across wide areas of Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania Uganda, Kenya, and Somaliland, are short of food, says Oxfam. "Those most badly affected are pastoral groups who depend largely on livestock for their survival both for consumption and for exchange for other food and household items. Due to ongoing poor rains, the situation is worsening, and food shortages could reach critical proportions in the coming months."

Reporters Without Borders protested against the disproportionality of the one-year suspended prison sentence imposed by a Kigali appeal court on Charles Kabonero, the editor of Rwanda's main independent weekly Umuseso, for "attacking the dignity of a high authority." The court also imposed a heavy fine which Kabonero will be hard-pressed to pay. "The obstinacy of the plaintiff, parliamentary deputy speaker Denis Polisi, has had derisory results inasmuch as the courts found Umuseso not guilty of libel or sowing division, but a very heavy sentence has been imposed on a charge lacking in substance, to say the least," the press freedom organization said.

PrepCom III, leading to the Tunis phase of WSIS, will be held from 19 to 30 September. It will take place in Palais des Nations, Geneva. During the Inter-Sessional period between PrepCom – 2 and PrepCom –3, the Group of Friends of the Chair (GFC) will continue to draft proposals for Chapter one (Implementation Mechanisms) and four (The Way Ahead) of the operational part. All the governments and other stakeholders can contribute to this process during this period.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and The Synergy Project of Social and Scientific Systems, Inc. invite you to join the Children Affected by AIDS (CABA) online discussion forum. You can review the online archive of past postings and resources and subscribe to the Children Affected by AIDS Online Forum at http://www.synergyaids.com/Caba/cabaindex.asp

Brian Chikwava and Parselelo Kantai will be in attendance. Brian Chikwava is a Zimbabwean writer and winner of the 2004 Caine Prize for African Writing. Parselelo Kantai, from Kenya, also a Caine Prize winner, has published in the Kenyan literary magazine Kwani? Together with Elleke Boehmer, they explore the shifting rhythms and definitions of Africa, writing and nationhood, in their work.

We are an initiative called 1000 Women for the Nobel Peace Prize 2005. Our goal is to identify 1000 women worldwide who work for peace every day. Together these 1000 women and their work are being honored with a nomination to the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. At this stage of the project, the biographies of the 1000 peace women are being written locally according to several formats: an exhibition, a book with 100 photographs and 1000 texts plus introductory chapters, post cards with abbreviated descriptions of the work of the 1000 women, and extensive biographies for a website. We are looking for regional editors who are willing to work with our regional coordinators and take on the responsibility of editing the biographies produced in the regions.

The 8th Time of the Writer, International Festival of Writers, brings together over 25 writers from South Africa, Africa and the rest of the world to engage in a six-day programme. Activities include nightly readings at the Elizabeth Sneddon Theatre and a stimulating range of day activities, including an educators' forum, schools visits, prison writing project, a workshop on women's writing, and a publishing forum, all designed to nurture a culture of reading, writing and creative expression. One of the focal themes at this year's festival is negotiating identities, and examining the complexities that arise from issues of race, nationality and language.

What is advocacy, and how might this strategy play a role in communication-centred development initiatives and analysis around the world? This issue of The Drum Beat focuses on development through advocacy as well as the building of advocacy capacity. It examines just a few of the ways advocacy can be used strategically to foster social change. The Drum Beat - Issue 291 - can be accessed online at http://www.comminit.com/drum_beat_291.html. Subscribe online at http://www.comminit.com/subscribe_drumbeat.html

Available through the link below is a sign-on letter from U.S. civil society objecting to the nomination of Paul Wolfowitz to become the next President of the World Bank. While it is not clear whether the European governments - the only ones with the voting power at the institution's board to stop the nomination - will take any substantial action in opposition, the decision is not final until the board votes on it. That vote is expected on Thursday, March 31.

Health activists urged the Indian government on Tuesday to review a patent bill that makes it illegal to copy patented drugs, saying it would make drugs unaffordable for millions suffering from AIDS. Last week, India proposed changing the country's patent laws to make it illegal to copy patented drugs, a practice that has made cheaper medicines available in India and abroad, to fulfil India's commitment to the WTO.

The University of Bouake in the rebel-held north of Cote d'Ivoire is set to reopen next month almost three years after the outbreak of war forced it to close it doors and deprived thousands of youngsters of a chance of higher education, government and rebel officials said. Dozens of new students lined up at the campus on Wednesday to enrol for the first academic year since the start of the civil war in September 2002.

The African Union (AU) began drawing up plans on Tuesday to establish a 15,000-strong African stand-by force by June 2006. The entire contingent should be able to be deployed within 30 days of an order from the AU's Peace and Security Council. A draft roadmap on peacekeeping in the continent, released by the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, said five brigades of 3,000 men each would be in place by next year.

TB is primarily an illness of the respiratory system, spread by coughing and sneezing, which kills about two million people across the globe each year. The disease is linked to poverty, with Africa accounting for a quarter of all notified TB cases worldwide. The strategy for treating TB, adopted by the World Health Organisation (WHO) 11 years ago, requires health workers to watch patients swallow their pills for at least the first two months of treatment. Directly Observed Treatment Short-course (DOTS) strategy, as it is known, demands that patients then be closely monitored to make sure they complete the entire six-month course of drugs.
Related Link: TB in south Africa
http://www.health-e.org.za/news/article.php?uid=20031190

"In the name of humanism and self-determination, Blair's evangelical mission undermines Africa's case for development. And in the name of governance it threatens to weaken still further Africa's already fragile nation states," writes Daniel Ben-Ami, author of 'Cowardly Capitalism: The Myth of the Global Financial Casino, in this commentary for www.spiked-online.com. Ben-Ami writes that Africa's situation is so dire that any extra assets would be welcomed, but that the Commission for Africa Report, is likely to do more harm than good.

Human rights activists on the Comoran island of Anjouan have accused the government of riding roughshod over basic civil liberties, which has contributed to growing hostility between the state and the local population. The latest incident occurred in early March, when ongoing public protests over a teachers' strike left two high school students dead, amid allegations of heavy-handed police conduct. In what it claimed were legitimate concerns over national security, authorities on the tiny island imposed an immediate curfew in the capital, Mutsamudu.

The public hearing on the Freedom of Information Bill scheduled to take place at the Senate yesterday, March 22, has been postponed to April 12, 2005.  The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Information, Senator Tawar Wada, announced to scores of disappointed stakeholders that the public hearing had to be postponed due to the crisis that had engulfed the Senate over allegations that some members of the National Assembly had received a N55 million bribe from the now dismissed Minister of Education, Professor Fabian Osuji, to ensure the passage of the Ministry's budget for 2005.

There is much anxiety that is gripping Zimbabweans concerning the upcoming general elections at the end of March this year. In 2000 and 2002 the country’s voting population was clearly divided into those who vote for the MDC and ZANU PF. Any attempts by the smaller political parties or independent candidates to have an impact on the political process was immaterial. Those who cast their votes for the MDC did so because of the hope and change they anticipated for the greater Zimbabwe democracy project but indeed more importantly how this change would translate to their being more secure, better fed, housed, clothed and being employed.

Many of those who cast their votes for ZANU PF were intimidated into doing so and of course as I have said before, there are still those who have clung to it for the ideals that ZANU PF used to stand for and represent. Yet others have remained committed to it because of the benefits to their pockets and stomachs it has brought them.

Because the political climate in Zimbabwe today is much different from both 2000 and 2002, it is highly likely that the voting patterns and trends of the electorate will change and give a completely different picture to what we saw happen in the last general election. My greatest concern is that this election will see a very low and poor voter turnout. This would be ominous for MDC and is probably what ZANU PF hopes for. If the 2003 urban local government elections are anything to go by, then my suspicions will materialise to actuality. The highest average voter turnout in those elections was 37% in Redcliff and the lowest average was 12% in Chitungwiza and Bulawayo, the rest were between 25 and 34%. Considering that previous trends show the MDC’s strongholds to be urban locations, this does not look good for them. However, if the figures for ZANU PF’s primaries are to be used as a gauge, they too should be just as worried as they will rely on their staunch membership for votes as compared to the ordinary voter who is not involved in party politics, this time, both in the rural and urban areas.

There are many reasons that can be given for a likely poor turnout. The extent of the desecration of Zimbabwe’s socio economic state has sucked joy from most of Zimbabwe’s hardworking people and instead impregnated them with despair, hopelessness and disillusionment in the political process as a means to solve the country and everyday individual problems. People are suffering. Most can not afford to feed themselves and their families, they can not afford to pay their bills such as rent, water and electricity, they can not afford to send their children to clinics or hospitals neither can they find or afford doctors and medicines. Reserve Bank Governor Gono can brag all he wants about how much better our economy is doing, it means nothing to those who know that each day is more expensive for them to meet their basic needs. The quality of life for the greater majority of Zimbabweans has been amazingly eroded as basic necessities such as transport to work, lunch at work and recreational activities have become luxuries that are out of reach.

Other factors include the violence and intimidation people have been living with for the past 5 years. The senselessness with which ZANU PF unleashed its terror armies and used state organs such as the police and army to sustain its assault on civic society, the MDC, activists and the general public has indeed left a dent on many who suffered for sins they did not even commit. Others will be too afraid to vote and yet others will not care to vote as that particular action will not emit a different experience for them; you will get harassed whether you vote or not, so why bother.

Because of the closure of the Daily News, which had enabled news that was not ZANU PF and voices that were not ZANU PF to be regularly heard, the MDC lost a spot were it could continually visibilise itself, defend itself and send out its own messages. This did generate a perception to the general public that they are not active, are not doing anything or saying anything. People would complain that the MDC had gone silent and they would not realise that the MDC had been denied a platform by the ZANU PF to go about its business of engaging the public. Even though it’s a matter not of its own doing, it will dent the MDC. If people keep on hearing the same message over and over again they will eventually believe what they hear or will use what they hear as a basis to measure truth, especially in the absence of a different message. The consistent propaganda people have been listening to over the past three years without a counter voice has formulated in people’s minds as a basis of some-version-of-truth.

While I have always paid tribute to the MDC for being a David that challenges a Goliath (much stronger, bigger, older, more resourced and fierce looking) it is truth that it has made many blunders with its internal politics, which were heralded, to the public by their enemy’s mouth pieces. What people heard about the MDC, they heard from ZANU PF mouthpieces and so their image to the average Zimbabwean who is not in its structures is a bit disfigured by ZANU PF’s sinister exaggerations. ZANU PF on the other hand is also seriously fractured right now due to its own internal conflicts centred around the much loathed professor Jonathan Moyo and his Tsholotsho bandwagon, to add to this, they are still recovering from cheating, beating and stealing from each other at the primary elections.

Yes, ZANU PF was in power and could still pass the legislation it wanted since they had the majority in Parliament and as government were in the driving seat. It may look like there isn’t much that was benefited from having an opposition like the MDC in Parliament as unconstitutional and regressive laws that assault our rights kept on coming out of Parliament. What needs to be observed as well is that for the first time in a long time ZANU PF was continuously being challenged every time Parliament was in session. This time it was not a lone Margaret Dongo but there were over 20 MPs relentlessly debating, questioning, challenging, calling to account and speaking down at ZANU PF. This in itself is a score particularly in such restrictive and limited space. For every unconstitutional bill ZANU PF voted for, they had to work for it, some MPs actually had to be mobilised to attend Parliament so they could succeed in their endeavours. With as much contempt the ruling party has shown to the ordinary person of Zimbabwe in the past 5 years, I shudder to think what this period would have been like without the fierce opposition and pressure they got from MDC. If anything at all, more alternative voices must be increased.

This election, like in 2000, will be fought on the strength of the political parties and not on the individuals running the race. However, minimal performance and delivery by some individuals in the last parliament particularly in constituencies with strong independent candidates is a possibility. I will use my own constituency Harare Central to illustrate my point. In this case, the incumbent MP Hon. Zwizwai must not assume he will be voted back in as voters may be persuaded that having a strong independent candidate like Margaret Dongo may actually be more beneficial for them compared to having an MP whom they know little about, have seen little performance if any; have never read about him in the paper (or the Hansard for that matter) to have said anything in parliament, have never seen their constituency profiled through him at any platform. In the case of Hon. Zwizwai, it’s exacerbated by the fact that he took over from a more visible and vocal MP, Hon. Mike Auret. Hon. Zwizwai won the election with around 3,000 votes in August 2003 about the same figure (less) as votes ZANU PF received in 2000 (3, 600 votes). In 2000 Mike Auret got over 14, 000 votes. Margaret Dongo may actually make it back to Parliament in her own steam and not that of a party.

My point is, this election is not that easily predictable. Any party, any candidate, may get the biggest surprise of their life and thus must do what they need to, to show people they are the best candidate. Due to the context of the country as I have highlighted, I believe those who will vote already know how they will vote. However, I believe a lot of those we witnessed vote in 2000 and 2002 may need to be persuaded to exercise their responsibility to vote.

ZANU PF must refrain from using violence before or after the polls and must stop using delay tactics as it did in 2002 during the presidential elections and Harare local government elections. This disenfranchised Zimbabweans their right to vote. I witnessed in horror women and men being tear gassed and chased like dogs from the voting queues by riot police in Glen Norah. Such obscenities must not be repeated and must not insult the lives of the comrades who died in the liberation struggle so that all Zimbabweans could exercise the right to vote.

* Please send comments to

Zimbabwe’s recent history has fascinated the pundits, academics and analysts who study the stunted development of democracy in a post-liberation state. On the ground it has not been so engaging, as one round of voting after another comes and goes, and every aspect of life – economic, political, moral, social, even spiritual – loses quality.

Democratic elections are supposed to give a nation an opportunity to reflect and choose – to continue with the current policies and leadership or to give others a chance. When an economy falters and people’s lives become more difficult, sitting governments normally pay the price, whether or not they are responsible for the problems. But in Zimbabwe, when a government wilfully destroys an entire economy, and leads the whole nation into catastrophic collapse, misery and even starvation, elections have failed to provide opportunities to punish those responsible by removing them from power. As far as their democratic role is concerned – to hold governments responsible and bring them to account – elections have been exercises in futility. Will the 2005 Parliamentary elections be any different?

In February 2000, ZANU PF discovered, in a rare moment of truth, that they were unpopular enough to be defeated at the polls, in spite of all the advantages they had in controlling most of the media, the electoral machinery and all the state security apparatus. They immediately began the process of ensuring that no matter what the people wanted, never again would ZANU PF lose a vote. The electoral process would be turned into a stage-managed spectacle.

Within a few weeks of their unexpected defeat, ZANU PF had begun to put in place a new strategy. They pulled out their trump card of land seizures, accompanied by violence and intimidation. They added to it a manipulation of the electoral process which went just far enough to secure them a continued lien on state power. However, the legitimacy of the process was already under question. The legal challenges mounted against the results were never allowed to reach their conclusion, but the evidence is convincing that the declared results of the June 2000 parliamentary elections did not reflect the people’s will.

By 2002 when Presidential elections were held, ZANU PF had added more weapons to their arsenal: subversion of an independent judiciary, strangulation of the media and the withdrawal of civil liberties. With these essential underpinnings of any democracy gone, it is hardly surprising that the “democratic” elections produced a result similar to that in 2000: a disputed outcome, condemned by most of the observers who had not pre-judged it, but with ZANU PF remaining in control. Since then, they have perfected their manipulation to such an extent that they are now not afraid to reduce the level of overt violence and claim to the world that they have put in place a fair system. But the proof is in the guest list – only those who are friends of ZANU PF and gave previously disputed elections a clean bill of health will be allowed to observe in 2005.

Faced with this clearly biased situation, the opposition MDC appealed to the international community to save themselves and Zimbabwe from another charade. Europe and North America had already condemned the electoral process as fatally flawed and had begun to withhold aid; Zimbabwe had quit the Commonwealth when her suspension was upheld. What remained was Africa, and specifically the Southern African regional grouping of SADC, where all eyes fell on President Mbeki to offer a solution. In 2004, the SADC nations signed a Protocol which set election standards for the members, holding out a promise that the region might indeed insist on fair elections in Zimbabwe. Doubting Mugabe’s commitment, the MDC suspended participation in any elections until ZANU PF adhered to these standards. ZANU PF felt obligated to make a few changes – some meaningful and others quite prejudicial, and the debate raged about whether or not the SADC standards were being met. Mugabe obviously believes he will be able to get away with cosmetic changes, reducing the overt violence while keeping the essential mechanics of control in place.

The MDC recognised the uneven playing field when they suspended their participation in elections last August. The pressures on ZANU PF which they hoped to provoke did not materialise. The new electoral legislation is worse than what went before. Overt violence has decreased, but is no longer needed as the intimidation remains. So why is the MDC contesting? Have they learned nothing in the past five years? Don’t they know that ZANU PF will not give up power through the ballot? Haven’t they understood that the international community will not save them from a faulty election?

It was a difficult decision. International players, friendly and otherwise, put on the pressure to contest. The majority within the party structures wanted to contest, so how could a democratic party do otherwise than fulfil the wishes of the membership? Underlying the decision to participate was a deeper reality: MDC was formed as a political party with a mandate to remove ZANU PF through elections. Not to contest would have implied they had another plan, which they didn’t, and would have almost certainly led to a split in the party. Tsvangirai’s “damned if we do, damned if we don’t” is true in many senses – suicide or murder – which would you choose?

Until a few weeks ago, with Mbeki insisting that the role of SADC was to help Zimbabwe produce a fair election, there was still a hope that he pressurise President Mugabe to postpone the election until an independent electoral machinery could be put in place, the voters roll up dated, and repressive legislation repealed. But no positive steps were taken. In the final weeks before the election, Mbeki exposed his commitment to Mugabe by announcing that he saw no reason why the election should not be free and fair. Then President Mwanawasa of Zambia said he would never intervene in Zimbabwe.

The observer factor turned into something of a circus as ZANU PF changed the rules at will, making up excuses why they shouldn’t invite anyone who disagreed with them, excluding the SADC Parliamentary Forum, EISA, and even shortening the visas of individual members of South African delegations. As the observers arrive it has become even worse: the head of the South African Government delegation announced on arrival that the election would be free and fair. MDC then refused to talk to them and said they would deal with the ANC delegation only. Some opposition members of the South African Parliamentary delegation have already left for home. It appears that the lion has gobbled up his tamer, but the show goes on, a complete farce, with no credibility whatsoever. Too bad about the lion tamer. But has anyone noticed?

Zimbabwe and the whole region desperately need a resolution of the current multi-faceted crisis. But since it is essentially one of legitimacy, the election must produce a result which is accepted as genuine by the Zimbabwean people, the region and the international community as a whole. The chance for this has now been pre-empted by ZANU PF’s tightening rather than loosening of undemocratic controls, and the region’s apparent endorsements. What is the likely outcome?

ZANU PF has very little to offer Zimbabweans which would attract voters. In the five years since the last Parliamentary election, the country has lurched from one disaster to another; even the President has admitted that the land redistribution has largely failed, and the country can no longer feed itself; agricultural exports have collapsed, industry has shrunk, mining is under threat, and the human development index has dropped below what it was in 1975.

Just how all these problems will end if we vote “against Blair” is not revealed. A frenzy of election teasers has been showered on the doubtful – huge salary increases for civil servants, vehicles and electricity for chiefs, pensions for pre-independence ex-detainees previously ignored, fiats from on high prohibiting price increases on critical commodities. But few are fooled. Elections are Christmases in Zimbabwe; Father Christmas visits with his bag of goodies and then retreats to the North Pole to play with his elves. Why should Zimbabweans be any different from people around the world, who recognize when their governments have failed and show them the door? It is clear that, given a free choice, Zimbabweans would not wish to continue with leaders who appropriate to themselves the little remaining wealth and resources and ruthlessly crush those who would dare to complain.

There will of course be some who willingly vote for ZANU PF. Those who benefit from the plunder; those whose crimes are ignored by a police and judiciary partial to the ruling party; those whose lives have been intertwined with a political party of liberation, and like their leader, do not wish to face the reality that the past is history; the misguided who have fallen for the propaganda bait; and most significantly those who are afraid, who want to ensure a food supply, who do not want the “trouble” which would ensue if their communities were to be seen to be voting against a powerful establishment.

But there is disunity within the party. In previous elections, when disputes rocked the ruling party, they papered over the cracks and pulled together against a common enemy. But can the spectacular eruption which blew apart the party congress in December be overcome? Will the losers in the succession stakes be content to bide their time, and support the winners through the election? Is Jonathan Moyo now an irrelevant maverick, or do he and ZANU PF still have a hidden agenda? Observers have been surprised by the lack of energy in the ZANU PF campaign, the uninspiring campaign materials. Is it possible that the open rift has affected their capacity? Or is there a lack of funds, with known funders expelled, bankers on the run and enormous amounts of money required to pay reluctant campaigners?

The MDC, on the other hand, seems confident. ZANU PF’s desire to make this seem like a fair campaign means that the violence is reduced, and it has been necessary to allow opposition campaign meetings. Violence and fear are still factors, of course, especially in Mashonaland, with many already targeted while others are threatened; but meetings are being held, some of them huge. The mood is exuberant, joyous, relaxed, in contrast to ZANU PF’s threatening diatribes addressed to obviously bemused school children and resentful adults.

Given the decision to participate, what has MDC to offer the electorate? They promise to free the country from the oppressive rule of ZANU PF, restore the rule of law, rebuild the economy, provide jobs, make agriculture productive again, make primary education free and health care available. Some MDC operatives are convinced that in spite of the tilted playing field, there is such disaffection in the country that they can still win the election. They are right about the disaffection - the people are seething with anger - but whether they can translate that into MDC ballots in the box is another question. Already many hundreds of thousands, especially of young people, have not bothered to register as voters. Many of the most committed party activists from 2000 and 2002 are no longer around, having fled from violence or simply concluded that Zimbabwe is not a good place to make a life any more. Some are disgruntled over the results of primary elections, and there is a lack of money for campaigning. Yet, in spite of the bleak realities, the mood is up-beat, optimistic, reinforced daily as reports of successful rallies and ZANU PF defections flood in from rural areas. Many of the rank and file are euphoric, convinced that this time they will march to victory.

But the number of people who actually vote for ZANU PF is only part of the equation. Can MDC win the count as well as the vote? As members of MDC become aware that a solitary election agent in each polling station will bear the responsibility for ensuring that no cheating takes place, they are realising how unreliable the process is, even if they do manage to attract a huge majority of the voters. Transforming a majority of ballots in the boxes into counted and recorded opposition votes is another challenge altogether. Even the official monitor whose task is to ensure that procedures are followed fairly, will be government appointed. And the foreign observers upon whom some were counting, will all be friends of ZANU PF. The faulty voters roll, and the manipulation of the voting process as well as the counting should provide success for the ZANU PF plan.
.
But there are other imponderables. The rigging depends on compliant electoral officials. To make sure that a discontented civil service does not upset the plan, the new Electoral Act provides for uniformed and non-uniformed services to man the polling stations and the entire electoral machinery. Uniformed personnel act under orders, and we have ample sworn testimony from previous elections that even when voting they were instructed to display their votes for ZANU PF. Can the party rely on these soldiers to do the job? Just in case they can’t, the brainwashed, mbanje-smoking National Youth Service, otherwise known as militia or green bombers have also been drafted in. While this time it will be more difficult to stuff ballot boxes or replace genuine boxes with fake ones, the system still allows ample opportunity for falsification of results by those who are so inclined.

What is the likely scenario? The election is held. Most people vote for MDC. The results are announced declaring a win for ZANU PF – with an increased majority. It will not be exactly a replay of 2000 or 2002, because this time there will probably be protests. Civic groups and some MDC members mount street demonstrations. Militia backed up by riot police and soldiers break them up, with casualties. Many are arrested. It’s over. After a week or two, compromised observer groups make mild criticisms of some aspects of the election, but endorse the result and call for restraint on all sides. ZANU PF is still in power; we have expended enormous amounts of time, energy and money, and we have achieved nothing.

Civil society organisations in South Africa and elsewhere will protest, but in the short term they are not likely to have a decisive effect. What will be the future of a government with a lukewarm endorsement from its friendly neighbours and the cold shoulder from much of the rest of the world? The economic problems, unemployment, collapsed services, will still be there, shouting for attention. Instead of economic recovery; government will move more rapidly towards a completely controlled, command economy. “New farmers” who have no title to their land may be instructed what to grow, will have prices fixed by the state and inputs erratically and preferentially supplied. War veterans, now joined by ex-detainees, will remain a huge drain on the economy, drawing a pension larger than the majority of those who work for a living. With a government considered illegitimate by most of those who have the means to invest, and policies becoming ever more irrational, the government will not attract investment from anywhere. Inflation will take off again due to the effects of stalled production and massive borrowing to finance expenditure.

Suggestions that at that point both ZANU PF and MDC will be persuaded to “talk” are surely misplaced. Why would ZANU PF want to talk in 2005 when they have not been willing to talk for the past three years? They have shown no sign whatsoever that they understand or care about the dire situation of the majority of Zimbabweans. Repression against civil society groups is more likely to be intensified. As the succession battle resumes, ZANU PF itself may continue with further infighting, which could even involve different factions of the army. The suggestion of a peaceful transition to a new-look ZANU PF which will restore the economy is surely fanciful, and any such government would have to eventually face the electorate, no more willing to hand over the reins of power than the present leadership is. The future looks bleak and dangerous.

But could it be different? Could street protests be strong enough to face down the police of army? Not likely. Could an MDC win actually be announced? Possibly. It will depend on the effectiveness of the rigging, the competence of the MDC election agents, and the commitment of ZANU PF to announce a win at all costs, whatever the results reported. Here’s another scenario: As the counting proceeds, and some results are announced, it becomes clear that ZANU PF has lost; a delay might occur as they argue about what to do. In the meantime, the people begin to demand a genuine result. MDC announces their own count, which gives them a win. Government calls in the army and riot police, dispersing any groups which have gathered. Arrests are made, and we arrive at the same point at which we reached in the first scenario, but this time no official results have yet been announced; government quickly announces their victory, observers dilly dally and the repression begins. Would regional governments then act? Why should they? If they weren’t prepared to talk tough up to now, why should they in 2005?

Then we could look at another scenario, less likely perhaps, but in some views not impossible. As results are announced, MDC seats tally more than last time, reaching 65, or even an outright majority. This would certainly expose ZANU PF’s legitimacy and Robert Mugabe’s right to rule as President; but the constitution gives him the Presidency until 2008, no matter what happens in Parliament. Unless MDC wins 75 seats, he will still have a majority in Parliament by virtue of his right to appoint 20 MPs outright, and the chiefs’ right to elect 10, generally government supporters. He can appoint a Cabinet from among the ZANU PF members of Parliament. But if MDC has 75 seats, the ability to pass legislation would be strangled; this might lead him to dissolve Parliament and try for another more congenial result. Gaining less than half of the elected seats in a clearly flawed poll would put ZANU PF’s mandate to govern in serious question, even for friendly neighbouring governments. ZANU PF would doubtless attempt to soldier on, perhaps literally, with support from the army, but would it finally turn Mbeki’s loyalty? Not likely, unless South African civil society continued to pressurise effectively, and desperate Zimbabweans poured in ever greater numbers across the borders.

We cannot today see through the dark glass; what Zimbabwe will look like even one month from now cannot be known by anyone. But several issues have become clear:

- The people of Zimbabwe are palpably angry and unwilling to tolerate ZANU PF’s continued rule.

- Their ability to translate their wishes into a valid election result are seriously hampered by the prejudicial electoral legislation and machinery, but they have found no alternative course.

- If ZANU PF seizes another victory against the will of Zimbabweans, disaster in many forms lies ahead, including total economic collapse and possibly even civil conflict or war, with dire consequences for the region.

- SADC governments’ unwillingness to insist on the electoral standards they themselves agreed in Mauritius appears to signal that they are not prepared to implement them for their own countries either.

- Democrats in the whole region should now be awake to the reality that whether Independence or the end of apartheid was won through armed struggle or otherwise, governments cannot be trusted with the task of defending democracy, in their own countries or anywhere else.

- Whatever occurs in Zimbabwe in the next few weeks, there is a long road ahead for the building of democracy in Southern Africa, from the bottom up, with much struggle to claim rights against the autocratic tendencies of all the governments and ruling parties of the region.

“March 31st, Freedom Day” shout the enthusiasts of the MDC. Even in the unlikely event that they celebrate on April 1, the lesson for the whole region should be clear: freedom and democracy remain the first item on the agenda for the next generation. The struggle continues.

* Mary Ndlovu is a Zimbabwean human rights activist.

* Please send comments to

* Previous editorials from Mary Ndlovu in Pambazuka News:
- Zimbabwe in March 2004: Four years from the beginning of the plunge

105
- March, Zimbabwe’s month of destiny: Pambazuka News 55, 2002

- Amnesty International report on the run-up to elections
http://hrw.org/backgrounder/africa/zimbabwe0305/
- Essential news and events on the elections from Kubatana
www.kubatana.net
- No solution to the Zimbabwe crisis by Brian Raftopoulos
http://www.theindependent.co.zw/news/2005/March/Friday18/1892.html
- Pre-election analysis from the South African Institute of
International Affairs (SAIIA)
http://www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0001143/index.php
- Labour and union issues in the Zimbabwean agriculture sector
http://www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0001159/index.php
- Zvakwana - Enough is Enough: A must visit website for activists
http://www.zvakwana.org/
- Report by social movement observer delegation to Zimbabwe

- Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe

The Breaking the Wall of Silence Movement (BWS) was established by former detainees, relatives and concerned Namibians in February 1996, after previous sporadic attempts made by groups and individuals failed to yield a consistent impact in addressing the plight of the ex-detainees after Namibia's independence in 1990. The BWS was formed to resume, pursue and drive to its final resolution, the unanswered gross human rights violations committed by the SWAPO Liberation Movement against its own innocent cadres in especially Lubango, Angola and Zambia, while in exile (1960 - 1989). Click on the link below to read about BWS and some of the statements they have made about events and issues in Namibia.

* EDITORIAL: Mary Ndlovu introduces three articles on the Zimbabwean elections (in the Editorial and Comment and Analysis sections) arguing that it is impossible for anyone to say with any certainty what Zimbabwe will look like one month from now. But whatever happens, she says, democracy in the region must be built from the bottom up.
* COMMENT AND ANALYSIS: Steve Kibble explains how the crisis in Zimbabwe is about security and questions how to shift the monopoly on security from the military so that it addresses the concerns of those without power.
* COMMENT AND ANALYSIS: Janah Ncube outlines the political dynamics effecting Zanu-PF and the MDC, stating that the March 31 election might not be as predictable as everyone thinks.
* LETTERS: Readers respond on: Bleeding heart do-gooders; Columnists who can’t stop complaining; and genocide in Zimbabwe. Send your views to edi[email protected]
* PAN-AFRICAN POSTCARD: Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem criticizes African leaders for talking about self-determination but being the first to run to the West for aid.
* AFRICAN UNION WATCH: What did the Commission for Africa have to say about the African Union? This article includes extracts from the Commission report on conflict prevention, education, health and more…
* CONFLICTS AND EMERGENCIES: Whole communities in Angola lose their land without compensation due to diamond mining, says a recent report.
* HUMAN RIGHTS: An Amnesty International report says the fight against terrorism is bad news for human rights in Kenya.
* WOMEN AND GENDER: The struggle for the ratification of the Protocol on the Rights of Women in Africa continues.
* DEVELOPMENT: Wolf 1 gives way for Wolf 2 at the World Bank, with clear implications for global civil society.
* HEALTH/HIV/AIDS: News on World TB Day and the Indian Patents Act.
* AND…The latest jobs, courses, campaigns and email lists.

>>>>>PAMBAZUKA NEWS TURNS 200! On March 31, Pambazuka News will release its 200th edition. The milestone represents a journey from an e-newsletter with a few hundred subscribers to one with over 15 000 subscribers; from an e-newsletter that nobody knew about to one that is widely distributed on the African continent.

We invite subscribers to celebrate with us and send us a birthday greeting. Tell us about your experience with the newsletter and how you find it of use. Please send comments to [email protected]

U.N. peacekeeping troops in Ivory Coast are severely overstretched and militia groups are mobilizing across the country, creating a real danger of a fresh outbreak of war in the world's top cocoa grower, the United Nations said on Wednesday. "There is a very real danger that events may spin out of control with incalculable consequences for the people of Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and the subregion as a whole," U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in a report to the Security Council.

The Angolan government should put an immediate end to the climate of impunity and terror that exists in the diamond rich Lundas provinces in north-eastern Angola and restore human dignity and the socio-economic integration of local people. For their part, diamond mining companies should respect human rights and prevent acts that violate people's rights and freedoms on the part of the security companies which are contracted to them.

These are some of the recommendations contained in a report 'Lundas – The stones of death: Angola's deadly diamonds', which details human rights abuses in the Lunda provinces of Angola. The report says the entire area constitutes diamond bearing reserve zones, of which tens of thousands of hectares have been granted in mining concessions. It shows how the concessions limit the free circulation of people.

“In practice, villages located in the diamond concession zones are forbidden. Populations of villages that fall within a concession zone are uprooted and forced to relocate to other areas, without any support from the authorities or from the concessionaires, and the land that the people traditionally worked and which belongs them is stolen without any compensation."

The report was conducted by Rafael Marques, freelance journalist , and Rui Falcão de Campos, a lawyer.

* Compiled from the report by Pambazuka News.

With the resumption of the Gacaca trials on March 10 2005, African Rights has released the sixth report in the series on the history of the genocide in the 12 original pilot sectors. This series was formulated with the aim of providing a background against which the results of the trials can be measured and can exist as a shared point of reference for all residents. Already published during the earlier phases of gacaca are the reports on Gishamvu, Nyarugunga, Nkomero, Nyange and Kindama sectors.

This particular report looks at Gahini sector, which at the time of the genocide was in Rukara commune in Kibungo province. With the redrawing of the administrative boundaries, Gahini now lies in Rukara district in Umutara province. As with all other previous reports, this one is based on the collective testimonies of prisoners, survivors and local people who witnessed the unfolding of the genocide.

Among the key perpetrators implicated in this region is Jean-Baptiste Mpambara, at the time bourgmestre of Rukara. He is currently detained in Arusha. French and Kinyarwanda copies of this report will soon be available. Contact [email protected] for more information or a copy of the report.

As Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) embarks on a five-year plan to re-build the war-torn country after two years of peace talks and 14 years of state collapse, Amnesty International is making an urgent call for human rights to be made a priority. "Vital to the success of the transitional government and the establishment of the rule of law in Somalia will be to secure justice for victims of war crimes and crimes against humanity," said Kolawole Olaniyan, Director of the Africa Program of Amnesty International. "There must be an open and transparent process to start establishing the truth and responsibility for past crimes with a view to prosecutions once a competent and impartial justice system is in place."

"Governments, international organisations and financial institutions, private enterprises and all members of society have a responsibility to respect, protect and fulfil the Right to Water for Life.  With one third of the population of the world suffering from lack of adequate drinking water and/or sanitation, it is clear that the realisation of the universal right to Water for Life is far from complete at the grass roots level."

This International Organization for Migration (IOM) paper discusses the trends, causes and impacts associated with internal voluntary migration for paid work. It states that in general, internal population movements are growing, and the three most significant recent changes in the pattern of internal population movement are: the feminisation of migration; the emergence of more accumulative kinds of migration which can contribute to the reduction of poverty; and the increase in temporary migration, especially commuting.

It was contended that the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) Initiative, and later its enhanced version, would ensure a permanent exit solution to Africa’s debt problems. There now seems to be an emerging consensus, however, that many African countries continue to suffer from a debt overhang despite the HIPC Initiative and various actions in the context of the Paris Club, says this editorial from the Seatini Bulletin.

Ghana has made considerable progress in increasing enrolments amongst both boys and girls. The rate of progress has been sufficient to achieve universal primary education (UPE) by 2015, and hence gender equality at primary level. However, reaching this goal cannot be taken for granted, since there are still a large number of disadvantaged schools in poorer areas - shown by the fact that nearly one in five of primary graduates are illiterate. Achieving the targets will require increased focus on schools in remote areas and help for those schools that need it.

I want to commend Dr. Tajuudeen Abdul Raheem's succint expository on Blair's African Commission or whatever it is they call it. I agree with him and nobody could have said it better!

Thank you Ndugu Issa. Where in the Blair Commission report do they mention compensation to the Kenyan women raped and brutalised by their "Johnies" and Gurhkahs in the name of Cold War freedom, defense and security. Freedom? All these perorations as these ignored women strive for justice in the shadow of high tech military bases and six star tourist hotels? Africa and the Third World do not need their poisoned chalice of crocodile tears. We have two sayings: those who weep harder than the bereaved and the mouse that bites you then,oh so gently as the old Anglican hymn goes,' soothes your sorrows, heals your wounds and drives away your fears! Yeah man,drives you right into the gulag of dependency by compassion!

Tony Blair talked about the scar on the world's conscience. Wrong again! The wounds of exploitation are still fresh and festering. Instead of 'breaking the chains from our hearts and setting us free' as the 1970s song goes, they're polishing the chains and piling up tons of neo liberal market friendly reports even as school children sit under trees and die of malnutrition thanks to their SAPs. Mothers are dying thanks to their user fee rules. It gets even better, cynical as that may sound. In a recent BBC programme it emerged that one British town had more Malawian doctors than the whole of Malawi. The issue is not compassion, aid, assistance, developement. There have been too many experiments with African lives, too many sheltered dictators,too many donor driven budgets, too many small arms, too many fire brigades translating into too many mice biting. Africans are not victims We are survivors and we are not about to give up. The issue is not compassion: it is LIBERATION and as Mwalimu Nyerere himself said: It can be done.

I speak from the depths of the Temple of Isis, Nzinga,Yaa Asantewa, Me Katilili and Mbuya Nehanda who didnt write books but wrote history. I speak through the spirit in the vocal chords of Miriam Makeba and in the feet of Soundiata Keita, the son of Sogolon who defeated the usurper Soumaoro Kante. Their spirits hover aloft to inspire us not in compassion but in DIGNITY. Hear ye all ye bleeding heart do gooders: It MUST be done. We are our own liberators.

A luta continua!

This paper, the first in the Lancet Neonatal Survival series, focuses on the growing proportion of child deaths that occur in the neonatal period (the first four weeks of life), accounting for 38 per cent of all child deaths in 2000, or 4 million a year. While 99 per cent of neonatal deaths arise in low and middle income countries, research focuses on the one per cent of deaths in rich countries. The highest neonatal mortality rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors conclude that the Millennium Development Goal for child survival cannot be met without achieving substantial global reductions in neonatal mortality. They argue that inequity should be addressed as a priority.

Human rights activists have called on the Zanzibari police to adhere to professional ethics and respect human rights after the Tanzanian government deployed extra policemen to the semi-autonomous island on Monday. "We are asking the police to be careful in the execution of the operation," said Jilde Mambo, a legal adviser with the Zanzibar Legal Services Centre, a human rights NGO.

The Secretary-General is responsible for providing strategic leadership, coordination of programme development, management and implementation, servicing of the network, provision of an effective interface with partner institutions and funding agencies, monitoring and evaluation of programme delivery and operational performance, staff supervision and general administration.

The Media Institute of Southern Africa (MISA)-Zimbabwe is dismayed by yet another Supreme Court judgment upholding certain sections of the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) as constitutional. The Constitutional challenge brought by the Associated Newspapers of Zimbabwe (ANZ) against the Minister of State for Information and Publicity in the Office of the President and Cabinet as well as the Media and Information Commission (MIC) sought the nullification of sections 39, 40, 41, 65, 66, 69, 70, 71, 76, 79, 80, 83 and 89 as well as paragraph 4 of the Forth Schedule of the Act as unconstitutional. The case was heard on March 3, 2004, with judgment only being delivered on March 14, 2005, over one year after the matter was heard.

Officers of the Sixth Judicial Circuit Court in the capital, Monrovia, are demanding 500 Liberian dollars (approx. US$10) from "Forum" newspaper's management as a pre-condition for reopening its office. According to a Media Foundation for West Africa-Monrovia source, the officers were to reopen the newspaper's office on 11 March 2005, after the management handed over US$200 to the state in payment of a fine for "disregarding a court order." The officers, however, said that they would not reopen the office unless the newspaper's management "gave" them 500 Liberian dollars. The paper's managing editor, Augustine Fallah, told MFWA that the demand constituted a "bribe" and was part of a deliberate attempt to silence the newspaper.

Reporters sans frontières (RSF) has voiced concern that, with general elections due to take place in just two months, on 15 May 2005, two journalists, Shiferraw Insermu and Dhabassa Wakjira, continue to be detained. Insermu and Wakjira, journalists for the Oromo-language service of the state-owned Ethiopian Television (ETV), are accused of having links with an Oromo separatist group. "As Ethiopians get ready to vote, two journalists continue to languish in a prison where cases of torture and mistreatment are regularly reported by international organisations," RSF said.

A "Digital Solidarity Fund", a voluntary financing mechanism designed to provide community computers, was launched in Geneva recently, with United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan welcoming the initiative as contributing to the fight against poverty and bridging the information divide.

"The Zambezi River is the source of life for our families… [it] is generous and other users along with us benefit from it. We respect all of them as good neighbors, and we especially recognize the important role of Cahora Bassa dam… However, in the 30 years since the dam's construction, we have lost productive lands along the river and on the islands. The reeds we use have disappeared. Fish in the river have also decreased. In the delta, the River arms are progressively drying up. The mangroves are threatened, and so, too, is the prawn fishery…" These are some of the conclusions that a group of 70 subsistence farmers, fishermen and NGO members from the Lower Zambezi River in Mozambique developed in a declaration they presented to government authorities in October 2004. The full article is contained in the February edition of the World Rivers Review. published by the International Rivers Network.

The Commission on the Status of Women (CSW) at its 49th session (New York, 28 February ­ 11 March 2005) adopted a Declaration reaffirming the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action and emphasizing that the full and effective implementation of the Beijing Declaration and Platform is essential to achieving the internationally agreed development goals including those contained in the Millennium Declaration. The full text of the Declaration is available through the link provided.

Measles killed more than 500 children between January and mid-March in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Sunday. An overwhelming majority of the 561 deaths occurred in Nigeria’s northern region, where doctors say people are wary of vaccinations largely for religious reasons. And of the 23,575 cases recorded so far this year, WHO said more than 90 percent of the total were in the north.

The Rothamsted International African Fellows Programme aims to provide problem-focused training in Europe for mid-career African scientists. The purpose of the programme is to assist in capacity building, institutional strengthening and knowledge transfer in order to find relevant solutions to the problems of achieving sustainable agricultural production, as well as improving rural development and conservation of biodiversity.

You will lead the development and implementation of a coherent advocacy strategy for Oxfam in Sudan. You will specifically focus on issues of conflict analysis, humanitarian space and the ongoing peace processes.

The Protocol to the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights on the Rights of Women in Africa adopted in July 2003 in Maputo will enter into force thirty days (30) after the deposit of the 15th instrument of ratification. To March 8th, only ten (10) countries have ratified and 37 have signed it. Five precious ratifications are still missing before countries that accessed to it are obliged to implement the principles of the Protocol into their laws. In West Africa, three (3) States members of the African Union have ratified and 14 out of the 16 countries of the sub region have signed.

Controversial legislation approved by the lower house of India's parliament on 22 March could drastically increase the cost of cheap HIV drugs and other medicines the country produces, according to international humanitarian organisations. The law threatens to affect the provision of healthcare to hundreds of thousands of patients, many of them in Africa, for whom low-cost Indian drugs are the only affordable means of treating AIDS. The new patents bill is intended to bring India's patent regime into line with the World Trade Organization's (WTO) agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (known as TRIPS), one of the conditions of India's membership of the WTO.