In Burundi the first period of a three-year transitional government is drawing to an end. Under the terms of the peace agreement to end the civil war, presidential powers are to be transfered from a Tutsi to a Hutu on 1 May. But speculation among analysts and commentators over what the future holds for Burundi is rife. Aid agencies in western Tanzania and some Burundians are not relying on a smooth transition of power. They believe that waiting till the day will be too risky. The result is that refugee numbers have been mounting steadily and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has put in place a contingency plan to deal with a fresh influx.