The next few weeks will be decisive for peace efforts in Northern Uganda, says the International Crisis Group in a new briefing paper.

Factors on the ground which are favourable for peace include greater effectiveness in the counter-insurgency efforts of the Ugandan army, reduced support for the Lord's Resistance Army by the Sudanese government and pressure created as a result of an International Criminal Court investigation into the conflict.

A unilateral ceasefire declared by the Ugandan government was due to expire on February 22 and the ICG is urging that it be extended to give further impetus to peace efforts. "If the process is to succeed, a more secure, mutually agreed ceasefire needs to be in place and negotiations started on the terms of a final settlement by April when the rainy season (the best time for LRA operations) begins."

One of the recommendations made by the ICG is that the ICC tread carefully in their investigations into war crimes committed during the conflict and not issue warrants of arrest until April, when the direction of current peace efforts might be clearer. While the ICC investigations were "important steps toward accountability and an end to impunity" there was a risk that the LRA could be driven away from the peace process if prosecutions were launched.

The Northern part of Uganda, the ICG notes, has received increased attention by President Yoweri Museveni because it offers a potential vote pool ahead of elections in 2006. The luxury of strong support bases in the south and central parts of Uganda for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) are eroding and Museveni can expect support from the region if he can secure peace.

The eighteen-year insurgency in Northern Uganda by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has displaced 1.6 million people, says the ICG.

* Compiled from the report, 'Peace in Northern Uganda: Decisive Weeks Ahead'. Read the full report at http://www.icg.org//library/documents/africa/central_africa/b022_peace_i...