U N I T E D N A T I O N S
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN)

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Regions breadbasket urged to watch exports

JOHANNESBURG, 23 May (IRIN) - South Africa, the breadbasket of a region hard
hit by food shortages, could find itself unable to meet domestic needs
should exports to neighbours outstrip reserves.

The estimated regional maize deficit stands at 3.3 million mt for the year.
South Africa's department of agriculture adjusted its estimate of the yield
from its domestic maize crop from 8.5 million mt to 8.59 million mt.

The 91,925 mt increase was "based on weather conditions, as well as
information supplied by a consortium that was appointed to develop an
improved crop forecasting system", it said in a statement.

But it's an estimation the commercial grain producers, Grain SA, have called
"overly optimistic", and warned could result in too much maize being
exported, leaving less than the required amount for domestic consumption.

Grain SA's Bully Botma said: "More than 400,000 hectares were planted during
December/January. We had unexpected early frost, on 29 March, and that has
not been taken into account [in the estimate]. Some of the [crops] currently
being harvested are yielding up to 30 percent less than estimated.

"If you talk to the insurance people they say damage from hail and frost is
way above normal."

While there was no immediate danger of a shortfall in meeting domestic
requirements, Botma pointed out that South Africa had already imported
significant quantities of maize (280,000 mt) from the European Union and US
markets for domestic consumption. "That maize is of inferior quality
compared with South African grain, which the markets are prepared to pay
premium for. At the rate we are exporting we will most certainly run into
deficit ourselves," Botma said.

He also pointed out that there was as yet no certainty regarding carryover
stock (maize left over from last season).

However, the chairman of the crop estimates committee, Rodney Dredge,
disagreed: "Early plantings are actually producing very good yields. Our
domestic requirements are about 7.8 million mt per year. The crop forecast
is almost 8.6 million mt, then there's carryover stocks from the previous
season of about 500,000 mt and imports of about 250,000 mt. That gives us
about 9.3 million mt."

He said domestic requirement included the "normal exports to the BLNS
countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland)".

"We'll definitely have enough for domestic consumption. The new maize season
started on 1 May and I think our exports into Africa so far this season is
about 40,000 mt," Dredge said.

Maize was being purchased at over R1,600 per mt (US $160). He said reports
exaggerating the shortfall or surplus would affect what the free market was
prepared to pay for the product, and cautioned against this.

"In the SADC region we expect a deficit of about 3.3 million mt. South
Africa obviously won't be able to meet that sort of deficit but we will be
able to supply a relatively small amount of maize. If you look at the
figures [it's clear] we could supply 400 to 500,000 mt, [exporting] beyond
that would mean we would have to import to meet domestic requirements,"
Dredge said.

[ENDS]

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