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SOUTHERN AFRICA: El Nino threat grows

JOHANNESBURG, 1 August (IRIN) - The Flood and Drought Network of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has warned that there is a 90 percent chance that El Nino conditions will prevail during the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003.

El Nino occurrences are global climatic anomalies that in Southern Africa have been linked to severe droughts, flooding and hurricanes.

In its latest advisory the SADC body said: "The southern African region is currently undergoing food deficits mainly due to the poor rainfall ... and other factors. This has resulted in total cereal deficits of almost 5.4 million mt and 13 million people are at risk of starvation.

"The revelation by scientists of an impending El Nino situation has caused anxiety in governments in the region especially under the prevailing circumstances where governments are grappling to provide for the needy."

The July assessment indicated that the most likely strength of the El Nino would be about one-third to a half of the strength of the 1997-98 El Nino, which caused severe drought in Southern Africa. "Climate impacts will therefore be comparably weaker than those associated with the 1997-98 El Nino", the report said.

While it was not certain that a drought would occur, it was "important at this stage to consider conservation methods that will conserve moisture for crops in the event that rainfall deficits occur".

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