United Nations (UN) and French peacekeeping mandates expire on April 4 and the international community must make decisive moves in renegotiating its mandate in order to prevent an explosion in violence, says the International Crisis Group in a new report, available in French.

A worsening of the situation in the country would be a tragedy for the entire region, says the ICG, with the potential of a wider regional conflict involving Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso. The greatest damage could be done to Liberia's fragile peace process, says the ICG.

In order to give a peacekeeping mission that is accepted by all parties a chance to succeed, the French government should begin negotiations with the UN about a gradual drawdown of its contingent, and a parallel substantial strengthening of the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI). The new UN troop deployment must include a robust rapid reaction unit, well-equipped, with helicopters in particular, as UN Secretary General Kofi Annan requested on 9 December 2004. South Africa should play a crucial role in strengthening UNOCI, adding to its political commitment in the name of the African Union (AU), a strong military engagement. In the absence of this suggested recomposition of peacekeeping troops, it is imperative that the French government maintain its military presence in support of UNOCI."

In its recommendations to the African Union (AU), the ICG says that over the next 18 months, a referendum should be held on determining the criteria for eligibility to run for the presidency. In this period there should also be presidential elections, legislative elections and a comprehensive Disarmament, Demobilisation and Repatriation (DDR) process.

* Compiled from the report by Pambazuka News.