U N I T E D N A T I O N S
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN)

WEST AFRICA: Risk of conflict still high

ABIDJAN, 26 April (IRIN) - The risk of conflict developing or escalating in
the West African countries of The Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal and
Sierra Leone exists, but in varying levels, according to an April 2002
assessment by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project.

The 'Conflict Risk Assessment Report' was based on nine issues identified as
underlying the potential for conflict development in each country. These
were a history of armed conflict, governance and political instability,
militarisation, population heterogeneity, demographic stress, economic
performance, human development, environmental stress, and international
linkages.

CIFP used a scale of risk indices ranging from 0 to 12, with 0-3.4
considered low risk, 3.5-6.9 medium risk, 7-9.5 high risk, and 9.5-12 very
high risk. It found that Sierra Leone had the highest risk with an overall
index of 7.2 followed by Liberia at 6.4, Guinea (5.4), Senegal (5.3) and The
Gambia (5.0). Overall, the risk rating was medium to high.

Several indicators were highlighted in the report, including number of
refugees produced over a period of time, durability of the countries'
political regimes, military expenditure, ethnic diversity and population
growth, GDP growth rates and debt, access to improved water and sanitation,
diseases and life expectancy and school enrolment.

The risk of economic instability in Sierra Leone was found to be very high
(9.6 ) while the risks rates stemming from armed conflict and weak
governance were high (9.3 and 8.3). The low level of human development was
also a high-risk factor, the report noted.

In Liberia, the highest risk index was for weak governance and political
instability (7.5), while other highs related to low human development and
armed conflict. Guinea and The Gambia had high risk indices in connection
with low levels of human development, weak governance and political
instability.

The report is available on
[ENDS]

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