East African countries will suffer job losses and an increase in poverty under the most plausible outcomes of the current world trade negotiations, a Washington-based think tank warns in a new report. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace bases its conclusions on sophisticated statistical modelling of likely agreements resulting from the Doha Round of trade talks, which have been underway for the past five years. The central scenario projected in the Carnegie report involves an ambitious expansion of market access for manufactured goods and a more modest expansion of world trade in farm products, accompanied by elimination of subsidies for agricultural exports.