Steve Kibble argues that the upcoming elections in Zimbabwe are tilted to a ruling party victory and will be marred by serious political and technical problems.

The unilateral declaration by President Mugabe of March 29th 2008 as the date for Zimbabwean elections (presidential, house of assembly, senate and local) was followed by the president’s reported statements at the recent African Union summit that he would never accept an opposition victory. This means that the negotiation process between the ruling party Zanu PF and the opposition parties (two fractions of the MDC) undertaken by Zimbabwe’s SADC neighbours is dead. Even if SADC itself publicly applauded this mediation as successful, it privately acknowledged failure. It was widely predicted to fail especially by civil society and progressive church personnel, given the unlikelihood of the ruling ZANU-PF party relinquishing power. It did, however, for a time give some hope as it provided for the first time since 2000 an opening up in an otherwise blocked situation.

South African president Mbeki, charged with bringing a solution to the crisis, staked his reputation on solving the Zimbabwean crisis, even recently telling visiting Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern that a solution was near. But he has been unable to persuade ZANU-PF to take the supposed negotiations seriously. The ruling party, despite concessions by the divided opposition party the MDC, refused to recognise the necessity for a free and fair electoral process and a new democratic constitution to be in place before any elections.

The actual electoral process has not only been geared to a ruling party victory but marked by serious political and technical problems, as well as intimidation. The electoral commission has no independence or impartiality, and the judicial process has still to hear petitions relating to the unfree and unfair elections of 2005. The constituencies have been increased in number and altered to favour the rural population – more under the control of ZANU-PF - and the delimitation exercise was opaque. The voter registration process has been problematic with many left off the register and unable to rectify this within the seven days allowed for inspection of the new roll. Even those who are registered have little or no idea where they are supposed to vote. Independent international election observers and foreign media will not be allowed in.

These elections are taking place in a dire economic and humanitarian situation amid reports of politicisation of food aid The local independent media whilst still alive is fighting for space and due to shortages of paper and power cuts even the state media, has found it difficult to publish its own biased information about elections, for which they are noted. The opposition having said earlier that it would not contest a skewed election, has now decided to stand, although with rival candidates. It acknowledges it will not win under current circumstances but also want “a piece of the small cake”. It will however have massive problems in getting sufficient candidates in place in time and with any access to the population.

This all means that energies are now directed towards a ruling party victory (including the reported hiring of Mossad, the Israeli spy agency, to help them do so) whilst the economy contracts, infrastructure collapses and the population is surviving on a day to day process, even worse failing to, or leaving the country. Some see the presidential electoral challenge to Mugabe by former Finance Minister, Simba Makoni, as opening up a little democratic space and opening up the cracks within the ruling party. Whilst popular in urban areas and amongst the international community, it seems unlikely he can seriously challenge ZANU-PF’s rural hegemony, even if he is supported by powerful ruling party Mugabe opponents such as ex army chief Solomon Mujuru. It may be that his sole impact is to split further the opposition vote.

What other pressures for necessary transformation remain? It is useful to distinguish here between transition and transformation. The SADC process was aimed at the former – with the hope that a reformed and re-elected ZANU-PF minus Mugabe could hope to attract international support for re-engagement and reconstruction. More necessary now, though is a complete overhaul of the repressive, corrupt and ineffectual system of governance. At present neither the opposition party/ies, nor civil society, having been under constant attack, have the capacity to bring about such change and there seems little international or regional support for them to do so. Church leaders have never seemed sure of their role, preferring quiet diplomacy with the government, alleviated by the occasional critical statement, rather than attempting to provide alternative leadership and solutions to the crisis. With former Catholic archbishop Pius Ncube silenced, there are few voices except groups like the Christian Alliance coming forward to lead such a process. Of paramount importance in such a transformation process will be the need to work at and include the grassroots level. Not only in advocating for a people driven constitution – but supporting peoples organising themselves, particularly in the rural areas.

It seems likely that Zimbabweans faced with a 6% shrinking of gross domestic produce last year and 50% decline since 2000, inflation officially at 27,000% and according to the IMF at 150,000%, employment at 8% with formal incomes depreciated by 90%, constant food, crops, fuel, transport and power shortages and continued repression face a disastrous future. The elections will do nothing to halt this spiral of decline. As Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O’Connor said after his recent visit ‘The economy no longer functions, the health service and education systems have collapsed, most of the skilled workforce has left the country’. Zimbabweans are going to need all the international solidarity and support they can get.

*Steve Kibble is a human rights activist. This article wasriginally commissioned by NigrIzia the Italian faith-based development magazine.

* Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org