Last September, Mozambique experienced violent riots due to food price increases. The government of Mozambique yielded to the social pressure and came up with some short term austerity measures. These were condemned by the majority, but somehow praised by those who were the main beneficiaries, since all they wanted was to see their living costs minimised. The condemnation was centred on the financial and economic sustainability of those measures, taking into consideration that the country is highly dependant on foreign aid, which sustains close to 50 per cent of the total state budget.

Some of the measures implied that the government was going to subsidise the bakeries, which claimed the rise in wheat price on the international market had forced them to scale up the price of bread. Besides this measure, the government was to subsidise the petrol price in order to avoid an increase in public transport costs, which is dominated by the private sector.

However, all those measures were designed for the short term, since new studies were to be carried out by the government in order to come up with effective measures to minimise the cost of living.

With the new events in the international political arena forcing an increase in the price of crude oil, the price for basic commodities worldwide have increased tremendously and poor countries like Mozambique have seen their measures to minimise the cost of living being threatened. This is because the government cannot continue maintaining the subsidies due to the implications for national expenditure.

However, feeling the rope getting tighter around its neck just six months after the initial riots, the government last week announced new measures, which consist of introducing a food basket and transport subsidy to the most vulnerable households. The difference between these measures and those of last September lie in the fact that the previous measures targeted institutions (bakeries) and the owners of public-private transport companies, but the new measures are directly targeting individuals.

The planning and development ministry has stated clearly that these measures are intended to free the government from high expenditure on subsidies. So the question then becomes, where was the government getting the money it used to subsidise the bakeries and petrol stations for the last six months and how was it thinking that it was going to survive, being highly dependent on foreign aid?

The other issue is on the extent of confidence in the government being ble to implement these measures. How will the government select the beneficiaries? Does the government have technical expertise to monitor the implementation of the measures and to make sure that the beneficiaries are reached? Again, since these measures look at those who are low income households whose monthly income is below US$67, what will be the criteria of selection since the majority of the population that are earning below that amount are in the informal sector, which is disorganised and where there is a lack of data on how much of the work force this sector absorbs?

The government says they will introduce a pass for public transport, so that those who are eligible (students, low waged workers) will pay less than others. How about the unemployed? The public transport system in Mozambique is dominated by small 15 and 29 seat mini-buses. Has the government analysed how their plan will work when ordinary citizens already face harassment from those who operate these mini-busses, who first strive to make a daily amount that they have to give to the transport owner.

The other decision which was taken by the government was to scale up the price of petrol by 10 per cent each month for the next five months, which means that by the month of August 2011, the price of petrol will have increased by an increment of 50 per cent. This will reduce the capacity of those who own private vehicles to continue to use their vehicles daily, forcing them to resort to public transport to reach their destinations. Again, the transport sector will be put to the test and even now it is failing to absorb the population that use it, especially at rush hour times.

By introducing these so-called innovative measures, did the government make a thorough study about their applicability or have they just tried to cover the sun with a sieve, because the implementation of all these measures will surely show the low capacity of the government to solve the social problem of the poor. Once again, it must get ready because new social riots are at the door, unless a miracle can help the hearts of many poor be dominated by the spirit of peace.

* Alcino Moiana is a Mozambican social activist, based in Zambia and FK fellow with Norwegian Church Aid, seconded to the Council of Churches in Zambia.