There is much anxiety that is gripping Zimbabweans concerning the upcoming general elections at the end of March this year. In 2000 and 2002 the country’s voting population was clearly divided into those who vote for the MDC and ZANU PF. Any attempts by the smaller political parties or independent candidates to have an impact on the political process was immaterial. Those who cast their votes for the MDC did so because of the hope and change they anticipated for the greater Zimbabwe democracy project but indeed more importantly how this change would translate to their being more secure, better fed, housed, clothed and being employed.

Many of those who cast their votes for ZANU PF were intimidated into doing so and of course as I have said before, there are still those who have clung to it for the ideals that ZANU PF used to stand for and represent. Yet others have remained committed to it because of the benefits to their pockets and stomachs it has brought them.

Because the political climate in Zimbabwe today is much different from both 2000 and 2002, it is highly likely that the voting patterns and trends of the electorate will change and give a completely different picture to what we saw happen in the last general election. My greatest concern is that this election will see a very low and poor voter turnout. This would be ominous for MDC and is probably what ZANU PF hopes for. If the 2003 urban local government elections are anything to go by, then my suspicions will materialise to actuality. The highest average voter turnout in those elections was 37% in Redcliff and the lowest average was 12% in Chitungwiza and Bulawayo, the rest were between 25 and 34%. Considering that previous trends show the MDC’s strongholds to be urban locations, this does not look good for them. However, if the figures for ZANU PF’s primaries are to be used as a gauge, they too should be just as worried as they will rely on their staunch membership for votes as compared to the ordinary voter who is not involved in party politics, this time, both in the rural and urban areas.

There are many reasons that can be given for a likely poor turnout. The extent of the desecration of Zimbabwe’s socio economic state has sucked joy from most of Zimbabwe’s hardworking people and instead impregnated them with despair, hopelessness and disillusionment in the political process as a means to solve the country and everyday individual problems. People are suffering. Most can not afford to feed themselves and their families, they can not afford to pay their bills such as rent, water and electricity, they can not afford to send their children to clinics or hospitals neither can they find or afford doctors and medicines. Reserve Bank Governor Gono can brag all he wants about how much better our economy is doing, it means nothing to those who know that each day is more expensive for them to meet their basic needs. The quality of life for the greater majority of Zimbabweans has been amazingly eroded as basic necessities such as transport to work, lunch at work and recreational activities have become luxuries that are out of reach.

Other factors include the violence and intimidation people have been living with for the past 5 years. The senselessness with which ZANU PF unleashed its terror armies and used state organs such as the police and army to sustain its assault on civic society, the MDC, activists and the general public has indeed left a dent on many who suffered for sins they did not even commit. Others will be too afraid to vote and yet others will not care to vote as that particular action will not emit a different experience for them; you will get harassed whether you vote or not, so why bother.

Because of the closure of the Daily News, which had enabled news that was not ZANU PF and voices that were not ZANU PF to be regularly heard, the MDC lost a spot were it could continually visibilise itself, defend itself and send out its own messages. This did generate a perception to the general public that they are not active, are not doing anything or saying anything. People would complain that the MDC had gone silent and they would not realise that the MDC had been denied a platform by the ZANU PF to go about its business of engaging the public. Even though it’s a matter not of its own doing, it will dent the MDC. If people keep on hearing the same message over and over again they will eventually believe what they hear or will use what they hear as a basis to measure truth, especially in the absence of a different message. The consistent propaganda people have been listening to over the past three years without a counter voice has formulated in people’s minds as a basis of some-version-of-truth.

While I have always paid tribute to the MDC for being a David that challenges a Goliath (much stronger, bigger, older, more resourced and fierce looking) it is truth that it has made many blunders with its internal politics, which were heralded, to the public by their enemy’s mouth pieces. What people heard about the MDC, they heard from ZANU PF mouthpieces and so their image to the average Zimbabwean who is not in its structures is a bit disfigured by ZANU PF’s sinister exaggerations. ZANU PF on the other hand is also seriously fractured right now due to its own internal conflicts centred around the much loathed professor Jonathan Moyo and his Tsholotsho bandwagon, to add to this, they are still recovering from cheating, beating and stealing from each other at the primary elections.

Yes, ZANU PF was in power and could still pass the legislation it wanted since they had the majority in Parliament and as government were in the driving seat. It may look like there isn’t much that was benefited from having an opposition like the MDC in Parliament as unconstitutional and regressive laws that assault our rights kept on coming out of Parliament. What needs to be observed as well is that for the first time in a long time ZANU PF was continuously being challenged every time Parliament was in session. This time it was not a lone Margaret Dongo but there were over 20 MPs relentlessly debating, questioning, challenging, calling to account and speaking down at ZANU PF. This in itself is a score particularly in such restrictive and limited space. For every unconstitutional bill ZANU PF voted for, they had to work for it, some MPs actually had to be mobilised to attend Parliament so they could succeed in their endeavours. With as much contempt the ruling party has shown to the ordinary person of Zimbabwe in the past 5 years, I shudder to think what this period would have been like without the fierce opposition and pressure they got from MDC. If anything at all, more alternative voices must be increased.

This election, like in 2000, will be fought on the strength of the political parties and not on the individuals running the race. However, minimal performance and delivery by some individuals in the last parliament particularly in constituencies with strong independent candidates is a possibility. I will use my own constituency Harare Central to illustrate my point. In this case, the incumbent MP Hon. Zwizwai must not assume he will be voted back in as voters may be persuaded that having a strong independent candidate like Margaret Dongo may actually be more beneficial for them compared to having an MP whom they know little about, have seen little performance if any; have never read about him in the paper (or the Hansard for that matter) to have said anything in parliament, have never seen their constituency profiled through him at any platform. In the case of Hon. Zwizwai, it’s exacerbated by the fact that he took over from a more visible and vocal MP, Hon. Mike Auret. Hon. Zwizwai won the election with around 3,000 votes in August 2003 about the same figure (less) as votes ZANU PF received in 2000 (3, 600 votes). In 2000 Mike Auret got over 14, 000 votes. Margaret Dongo may actually make it back to Parliament in her own steam and not that of a party.

My point is, this election is not that easily predictable. Any party, any candidate, may get the biggest surprise of their life and thus must do what they need to, to show people they are the best candidate. Due to the context of the country as I have highlighted, I believe those who will vote already know how they will vote. However, I believe a lot of those we witnessed vote in 2000 and 2002 may need to be persuaded to exercise their responsibility to vote.

ZANU PF must refrain from using violence before or after the polls and must stop using delay tactics as it did in 2002 during the presidential elections and Harare local government elections. This disenfranchised Zimbabweans their right to vote. I witnessed in horror women and men being tear gassed and chased like dogs from the voting queues by riot police in Glen Norah. Such obscenities must not be repeated and must not insult the lives of the comrades who died in the liberation struggle so that all Zimbabweans could exercise the right to vote.

* Please send comments to